***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.5 16.8 1.5 74.8 73.0 13.4 14.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 15.3 15.6 16.6 1.3 72.3 70.3 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 47 53 100 16.7 16.9 16.5 1.0 68.2 66.8 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 11.2 11.6 13.4 0.5 60.2 58.9 9.7 10.9 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 12.6 13.0 14.2 0.7 64.7 63.3 11.7 12.4 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 11.5 11.6 10.8 0.3 56.4 55.4 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 15.4 15.7 16.8 1.5 74.8 72.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 6.3 6.3 10.8 0.2 54.6 54.0 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 14.2 14.2 14.4 0.9 67.9 66.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 13.5 13.7 12.1 0.4 58.6 57.7 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 13.3 13.6 13.4 0.6 62.5 61.2 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 11.5 11.5 11.9 0.3 55.9 55.2 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 12.9 13.2 12.2 0.4 60.6 59.3 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 14.3 14.7 13.8 0.5 61.1 59.9 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 15.0 15.2 15.2 1.0 72.0 69.9 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 13.7 14.0 12.9 0.5 61.2 59.9 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 15.5 15.8 16.4 1.4 72.7 70.6 13.5 14.5 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 12.3 12.3 11.4 0.2 55.0 54.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 14.9 15.1 16.4 1.2 70.3 68.5 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 7.9 7.8 9.2 0.0 49.6 49.4 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 14.3 14.4 15.6 0.9 68.9 67.3 12.8 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 13.9 14.6 16.1 1.0 67.4 65.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 14.0 14.7 16.1 1.0 68.1 66.5 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 13.7 14.2 13.8 0.6 61.5 60.5 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 47 53 100 14.6 14.7 15.5 1.1 69.5 67.6 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 12.3 12.4 11.1 0.3 56.5 55.9 11.5 12.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 15.1 15.4 16.3 1.4 74.1 72.2 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 12.6 13.0 13.9 0.7 64.5 63.2 11.8 12.4 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 10.6 10.4 10.4 0.0 50.8 50.5 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.7 16.8 1.3 72.1 70.2 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------