***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 15.7 16.2 18.0 1.6 79.5 69.5 14.1 14.8 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 15.8 16.8 18.3 2.0 84.1 72.1 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 17.5 18.3 18.2 1.6 79.8 69.3 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 12.9 13.4 15.4 1.3 75.1 66.5 10.3 11.5 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.2 15.2 1.2 74.4 65.9 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.0 13.2 1.0 71.6 64.9 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.6 18.3 1.9 83.4 72.1 13.9 14.8 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 8.5 8.6 12.7 0.9 69.7 63.1 6.2 7.3 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.7 15.5 1.2 75.6 66.5 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.3 13.8 1.0 72.3 64.4 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.1 15.3 14.5 1.1 73.3 65.4 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.0 13.5 0.9 70.0 63.4 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.3 13.1 0.8 67.6 61.9 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 15.8 16.0 15.3 1.0 70.8 63.8 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.8 16.7 1.3 77.0 68.4 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 15.3 15.5 14.0 1.0 71.4 64.2 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 16.4 17.2 18.1 2.0 84.0 72.2 14.4 15.2 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.9 12.9 1.0 71.5 63.9 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 15.6 16.4 18.2 1.9 83.4 71.6 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.4 10.6 0.8 68.1 62.2 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 15.0 15.4 16.9 1.3 75.7 66.7 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 15.3 16.0 17.8 1.8 81.7 70.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 14.8 15.5 17.8 1.7 80.9 70.2 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.9 15.2 1.1 73.5 65.1 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 14.8 15.1 16.2 1.3 73.7 65.5 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 13.8 14.1 13.1 1.1 72.9 65.0 12.4 13.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 14.8 15.2 17.2 1.5 77.9 68.5 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.6 15.7 1.3 75.6 67.1 12.6 13.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.5 12.2 0.9 70.0 63.4 10.2 11.3 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 15.9 16.7 18.3 1.9 82.4 71.2 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------