***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 14.1 15.4 17.2 0.4 58.0 55.7 14.3 15.1 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.7 17.4 0.7 63.6 59.5 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 15.7 17.3 17.5 0.4 58.9 56.6 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.4 14.8 0.3 55.8 54.2 11.0 12.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.7 14.6 0.1 52.5 52.1 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.6 12.8 0.2 53.9 52.5 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.8 17.5 0.7 63.2 59.0 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.8 12.2 -0.1 48.4 49.5 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.8 14.8 0.1 52.8 52.5 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.5 13.1 0.0 49.5 50.3 13.7 14.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.5 14.0 0.1 52.3 52.0 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.4 12.9 0.0 49.6 50.2 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.7 12.5 -0.1 47.0 48.1 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.3 14.5 -0.1 47.6 49.2 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.1 16.3 0.4 59.3 56.5 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.9 13.5 0.1 51.8 51.3 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.4 17.3 0.7 64.3 59.7 14.7 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.1 12.3 -0.1 48.0 49.2 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.6 17.4 0.7 63.3 59.2 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.0 10.0 -0.1 46.6 48.2 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 13.5 14.8 16.2 0.2 53.4 52.8 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.3 17.1 0.7 63.7 59.3 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 13.4 15.1 17.1 0.5 61.1 58.0 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.9 14.4 0.0 50.6 51.1 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.7 15.5 0.1 52.5 51.7 13.7 14.5 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.8 12.5 0.2 54.3 53.6 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.9 16.4 0.3 56.1 54.2 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.8 15.2 0.3 56.9 55.0 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.8 11.6 -0.1 47.2 48.5 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.2 16.0 17.5 0.6 62.1 58.6 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------