***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 15.3 15.5 17.4 1.2 81.8 76.2 14.3 14.7 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 15.3 16.0 17.5 1.4 84.9 78.6 13.8 14.4 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 16.9 17.3 17.5 1.1 79.5 74.2 15.5 16.2 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.4 14.6 0.8 74.2 69.5 10.7 11.3 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.6 13.7 14.8 0.8 73.4 69.1 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.5 12.3 0.6 69.7 65.4 11.5 12.0 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 15.4 15.9 17.6 1.5 84.9 78.8 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.4 12.0 0.5 65.9 62.9 6.4 6.9 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 14.8 15.0 15.0 0.8 76.0 71.5 13.7 14.2 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.5 13.1 0.6 69.2 65.6 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.5 14.1 0.7 72.1 67.9 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 12.4 12.4 12.9 0.5 67.1 63.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.8 12.7 0.4 65.1 61.9 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 15.3 15.3 14.7 0.6 68.6 65.4 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 15.9 16.2 16.1 1.0 80.6 75.1 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 14.8 14.9 13.6 0.6 70.1 66.0 13.7 14.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 15.7 16.3 17.4 1.5 85.8 79.1 14.4 15.0 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.2 12.3 0.5 67.2 64.0 12.1 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 15.2 15.6 17.4 1.4 84.1 77.8 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.9 10.1 0.4 62.8 60.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 14.7 14.9 16.3 0.9 76.2 71.6 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.2 17.1 1.3 82.6 76.1 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 14.7 15.0 17.1 1.2 81.8 76.1 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 14.9 15.1 14.6 0.7 71.6 67.6 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 14.6 14.8 15.9 0.9 75.0 70.1 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 13.4 13.4 12.3 0.5 68.5 64.9 12.5 12.9 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 14.7 15.0 16.7 1.1 79.9 74.5 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 13.7 13.9 15.0 0.8 76.2 71.3 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.5 11.5 0.4 64.3 61.7 10.4 11.0 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 15.5 16.0 17.6 1.4 83.4 77.4 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------