***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 29.1 30.3 29.2 2.6 81.5 70.7 25.9 27.3 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 28.6 30.3 29.8 3.1 84.7 73.1 25.1 26.7 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 28.7 29.8 29.5 2.5 80.4 69.9 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 21.8 22.7 27.0 2.2 78.2 69.3 18.4 20.0 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 29.1 29.7 27.1 2.0 75.3 67.2 25.5 27.2 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 27.6 27.9 24.4 1.7 72.7 65.7 24.2 25.8 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 28.6 30.0 29.6 2.9 83.6 72.6 25.0 26.6 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 17.2 17.2 24.9 1.6 70.7 64.0 13.8 15.3 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 28.6 29.3 27.4 2.1 76.2 67.6 25.0 26.7 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 28.5 28.8 25.8 1.8 73.1 65.4 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 28.7 29.3 26.8 2.0 75.6 67.4 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 27.8 28.0 26.1 1.7 72.0 65.2 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 28.8 28.7 25.1 1.5 68.6 63.2 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 28.5 28.5 26.5 1.6 70.5 63.9 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 29.8 31.1 28.3 2.5 82.0 72.3 26.4 28.0 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 29.5 29.9 26.3 1.9 73.8 66.5 26.0 27.6 29.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 28.1 29.7 29.6 3.0 84.9 73.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 27.8 27.7 24.9 1.5 69.5 62.9 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 28.1 29.7 29.7 3.0 84.0 72.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 23.5 22.9 22.1 1.1 64.6 60.0 19.9 21.6 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 28.7 29.4 28.3 2.1 75.8 67.3 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 28.6 29.9 29.1 2.7 82.4 71.6 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 28.5 29.7 29.3 2.7 81.4 70.7 25.0 26.5 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 28.0 28.3 26.7 1.8 72.7 65.0 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 29.0 29.7 27.2 2.1 76.8 67.9 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 28.5 28.9 25.9 2.0 75.5 68.1 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 28.4 29.3 28.2 2.4 79.9 69.9 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 29.9 30.8 27.4 2.3 78.8 69.9 26.4 28.0 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 23.1 22.8 23.7 1.3 66.3 61.0 19.5 21.2 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 28.6 29.9 29.6 2.8 83.1 71.9 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------