***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 28.0 28.4 28.1 1.5 78.8 72.5 26.1 26.9 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 27.7 28.4 28.7 2.1 83.8 77.0 25.8 26.6 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 27.7 28.0 28.1 1.4 75.8 70.2 25.7 26.6 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 20.5 20.6 25.2 1.0 71.2 66.8 18.9 19.6 20.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 28.0 27.9 25.7 0.8 66.2 62.9 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 25.9 26.0 22.8 0.4 58.2 56.4 24.9 25.7 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 27.4 28.0 28.5 1.9 82.2 75.7 25.6 26.3 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.4 23.2 0.4 57.8 56.2 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 27.6 27.5 26.3 1.0 69.6 65.6 25.6 26.5 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 26.6 26.9 24.3 0.6 62.5 59.9 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 27.0 27.5 25.5 0.8 65.6 62.5 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 26.1 26.3 24.5 0.5 60.4 58.3 25.0 25.8 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.2 24.2 0.3 55.8 54.8 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 27.2 27.0 25.6 0.7 63.3 60.7 25.5 26.4 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 28.6 28.8 27.1 1.4 77.4 71.8 26.9 27.6 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 27.8 28.2 24.9 0.6 63.1 60.4 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 27.1 27.9 28.5 2.1 84.5 77.4 25.2 26.0 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 26.0 26.0 23.4 0.4 57.7 56.1 24.9 25.7 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 27.2 27.9 28.6 2.0 83.5 76.6 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 21.6 21.3 20.8 0.0 49.9 49.8 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 27.6 27.6 27.2 0.9 68.7 64.6 25.8 26.6 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 27.5 28.2 28.0 1.8 81.7 74.8 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 27.5 28.1 28.2 1.8 81.3 74.7 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 26.9 26.7 25.6 0.7 64.3 61.3 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 27.7 27.8 26.1 1.0 70.6 65.9 25.9 26.8 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 26.8 27.0 23.9 0.6 61.6 59.2 25.8 26.5 27.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 27.3 27.6 27.1 1.3 76.0 70.1 25.6 26.3 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 28.5 28.6 25.8 1.0 71.3 66.8 26.9 27.6 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.2 21.1 22.4 0.2 53.7 52.9 20.1 20.9 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 27.5 28.0 28.5 1.8 81.4 74.9 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------