***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 29.1 40.5 27.8 179.2 82.8 74.1 6.7 13.3 22.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 25.4 34.8 21.7 168.1 81.1 71.1 7.3 13.5 21.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 29.0 41.9 26.7 188.3 84.3 73.9 7.8 14.5 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 23.5 31.4 24.5 153.1 78.1 67.3 6.4 12.4 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 23.6 34.5 26.5 178.1 82.8 71.6 5.7 11.3 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 25.1 30.7 29.8 157.2 79.4 71.1 8.3 13.9 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 24.4 32.3 23.4 171.7 81.7 70.8 7.9 13.5 20.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 23.7 35.2 28.2 130.8 72.7 63.2 12.5 20.1 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 23.4 28.8 25.5 151.0 77.9 68.1 7.1 12.8 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 24.1 28.6 28.8 136.5 74.4 65.0 6.3 12.6 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 21.9 30.4 26.6 173.9 81.4 71.1 5.7 10.9 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 19.2 21.8 23.2 135.0 73.1 63.2 4.1 9.1 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 21.6 30.7 26.9 174.3 82.1 71.2 5.6 10.8 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 31.9 37.9 26.6 146.2 76.8 68.0 10.1 17.7 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.5 22.2 19.8 150.6 77.5 64.3 4.4 8.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 19.7 28.6 25.1 170.0 81.5 70.8 4.6 9.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 30.9 43.1 21.3 173.1 82.0 71.8 6.9 14.2 24.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 16.7 26.0 27.4 129.1 72.4 62.8 8.0 13.9 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 25.6 35.5 21.7 165.1 80.5 70.4 6.0 12.1 21.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 15.8 25.8 27.0 129.4 72.5 62.0 6.7 12.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 23.2 32.5 26.4 167.3 81.0 71.4 5.3 10.9 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 25.6 32.7 18.0 149.1 77.3 66.1 7.2 13.8 22.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 23.9 32.0 22.9 169.6 81.2 71.3 7.1 12.8 20.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 27.6 33.6 25.5 149.6 77.0 67.3 9.4 16.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 27.7 44.4 31.3 201.4 86.1 76.3 6.1 12.4 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 19.8 24.6 23.4 152.9 78.4 68.5 4.7 9.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 30.3 46.4 30.1 191.7 84.8 75.2 6.7 13.6 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 15.6 20.6 23.5 150.1 77.6 66.0 3.6 7.7 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 20.3 33.5 26.7 132.5 73.5 63.6 8.9 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 27.4 37.4 23.8 173.9 82.0 71.4 8.5 15.1 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------