***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 5.3 11.7 12.2 68.6 50.8 38.2 5.5 11.4 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.4 14.3 11.4 68.8 50.8 37.5 7.4 13.8 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 9.6 18.3 12.6 68.4 49.3 38.4 9.5 18.9 32.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.5 21.8 15.1 87.5 57.9 45.3 8.3 16.6 28.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.4 10.3 11.5 65.3 45.7 36.8 6.2 12.0 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 5.8 11.9 15.5 77.4 51.3 44.1 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 6.9 13.4 11.3 69.7 51.4 38.7 6.8 12.8 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.7 15.4 11.4 61.9 44.7 38.6 10.2 18.1 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 8.3 12.5 10.8 60.6 44.7 37.0 7.9 15.1 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 10.8 16.4 11.8 61.4 45.4 38.0 10.4 19.1 31.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 7.6 10.1 11.9 61.6 41.4 36.0 7.4 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.2 8.0 11.3 66.5 46.7 41.3 4.6 9.1 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.2 10.1 13.7 71.2 48.2 43.7 5.3 10.7 18.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 9.0 17.3 14.6 67.9 49.0 36.8 9.5 17.7 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 13.5 15.2 95.3 61.8 48.5 4.2 8.7 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.6 7.9 12.9 71.7 49.2 41.2 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 6.0 10.7 10.3 63.4 47.5 37.8 6.3 11.7 18.8 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 9.2 14.8 14.1 67.1 47.1 38.4 8.9 16.3 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 9.8 18.3 11.7 68.6 50.9 38.1 9.9 17.8 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.7 12.9 13.5 66.2 44.4 38.4 8.0 15.6 26.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 8.1 13.4 11.4 64.7 47.5 36.8 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 6.7 10.6 10.4 60.9 46.4 37.5 6.8 11.8 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 6.4 12.1 11.7 65.3 49.3 37.4 6.6 12.5 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 13.4 22.6 14.3 70.6 49.4 38.9 13.6 23.1 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 6.8 12.4 13.5 67.5 47.2 37.7 7.1 13.7 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.6 9.3 11.1 65.9 45.5 40.7 5.4 11.1 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 6.9 12.7 13.0 65.8 47.4 37.1 7.5 13.9 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.8 15.2 14.3 87.6 58.3 44.9 6.1 11.6 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 12.8 20.5 15.9 71.8 47.7 39.9 12.9 21.8 33.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 7.6 15.4 11.9 70.0 51.9 38.9 7.4 14.4 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------