***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.9 13.0 12.6 79.0 57.0 41.5 5.4 10.3 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.9 13.5 10.8 80.6 57.5 42.9 5.1 10.4 17.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.1 16.2 13.6 88.0 59.8 42.0 5.8 11.5 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.5 12.3 12.4 83.9 58.8 39.3 4.1 8.8 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 4.5 15.7 13.0 86.0 59.6 38.6 4.4 10.5 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.5 9.1 12.0 69.3 51.3 35.5 4.2 8.7 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 5.6 12.0 9.9 72.7 53.7 40.7 5.4 10.6 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.2 17.2 14.6 91.1 60.4 39.6 5.3 11.6 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.9 11.9 13.8 82.1 57.8 37.8 4.3 8.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 5.1 16.0 15.7 87.3 59.1 38.8 5.4 11.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.7 13.8 12.6 93.9 62.2 38.4 4.0 8.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.9 12.1 13.1 95.5 62.4 41.0 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.0 13.8 90.9 61.6 41.5 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.6 18.5 17.6 88.4 59.8 44.1 6.9 13.5 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.1 9.3 10.2 81.7 58.7 36.1 3.0 6.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.4 10.2 12.1 86.3 59.4 38.2 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 4.4 11.0 9.8 74.0 54.4 37.9 4.7 9.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.1 12.3 18.2 88.2 59.0 41.1 3.6 8.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.0 14.6 11.8 85.5 59.3 44.3 5.0 10.4 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.6 12.7 17.1 89.2 58.9 42.0 5.5 9.8 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.2 11.5 12.5 77.7 56.5 38.0 3.9 8.8 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.4 12.9 11.4 83.6 58.4 41.0 4.4 9.3 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.6 17.0 13.0 86.9 59.5 43.8 7.9 13.2 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 6.2 19.0 17.0 91.4 60.6 42.2 6.0 12.9 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.4 11.5 13.1 76.4 56.0 40.4 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.1 12.6 11.2 87.2 60.8 40.7 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.4 13.7 13.2 77.1 56.0 42.1 5.8 11.4 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.2 7.4 10.7 77.9 56.6 36.1 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.8 18.8 18.3 89.2 59.0 42.4 7.4 14.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 6.7 14.4 11.8 84.0 58.6 43.4 6.2 11.2 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------