***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 7.6 15.3 11.7 81.2 57.4 42.2 8.2 12.9 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.2 13.8 9.7 71.6 54.3 40.6 7.6 12.4 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.9 13.8 11.6 84.6 58.2 42.4 6.9 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.7 13.0 12.2 89.3 61.1 45.0 4.8 9.1 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.8 13.0 12.9 102.0 65.0 46.1 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.8 11.4 14.6 98.6 64.0 45.2 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 4.6 10.1 10.2 73.7 55.2 41.4 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.7 29.1 16.0 112.0 67.4 49.0 8.5 16.5 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.7 11.1 13.0 93.9 61.8 42.7 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.5 16.4 15.7 100.2 63.2 45.9 5.4 10.6 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.5 14.2 13.6 114.9 68.9 48.5 3.8 7.5 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.8 17.7 14.2 120.9 70.6 50.3 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.2 10.8 14.5 114.7 69.2 48.7 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.1 21.8 16.8 95.2 61.7 45.9 8.6 15.4 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.7 8.9 9.8 83.3 59.9 41.4 2.3 5.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.5 11.2 13.6 109.5 67.7 47.5 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.9 13.6 10.1 75.7 56.3 42.6 5.4 10.8 18.9 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.3 20.3 18.2 104.2 64.2 47.5 7.5 13.4 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.8 12.6 10.5 77.0 56.1 41.9 5.6 10.5 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.4 19.3 19.6 113.8 67.4 50.0 6.6 11.7 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 6.6 16.3 12.4 90.3 60.5 42.1 7.0 12.2 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 7.5 14.5 10.4 74.8 55.8 41.9 7.1 12.4 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.6 13.9 12.1 87.3 59.5 43.9 5.6 10.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 10.6 24.4 15.5 98.2 62.2 45.7 10.9 17.9 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 6.3 13.5 13.6 87.0 59.9 43.2 6.4 10.5 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.1 12.6 12.3 125.8 72.3 49.1 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.8 16.9 13.5 85.7 59.4 43.6 7.9 13.1 20.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.0 8.9 11.6 88.9 61.4 44.9 3.1 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 10.1 29.0 18.9 107.1 65.1 48.0 10.0 18.4 29.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 7.6 15.9 10.5 76.5 56.0 41.1 8.2 13.6 20.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------