***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 74.5 76.9 64.3 101.0 58.7 53.3 52.1 67.9 85.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 78.7 75.6 53.7 94.9 54.8 49.5 56.4 71.2 87.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 88.0 92.6 64.5 104.4 60.7 53.7 61.5 79.6 99.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 77.8 81.2 64.2 103.8 60.6 52.9 49.5 68.0 89.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 72.8 76.9 64.0 105.9 61.4 53.2 46.3 63.2 82.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 65.8 66.5 71.9 101.3 58.1 50.5 42.9 58.2 75.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 69.8 67.7 54.8 95.6 55.0 50.3 49.5 63.1 78.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 102.8 101.5 70.3 100.0 56.8 50.1 70.9 92.0 115.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 42.9 66.2 63.0 96.7 55.2 48.2 43.1 60.5 80.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 59.0 84.7 72.0 97.1 54.8 48.1 59.4 78.5 100.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 66.2 71.1 64.7 107.5 62.3 53.2 43.5 58.3 75.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 59.4 61.0 61.8 103.3 59.6 51.8 35.6 50.9 68.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 57.1 63.6 68.8 110.2 64.2 55.1 38.0 50.8 65.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 99.9 97.9 75.6 97.8 55.9 48.8 73.1 91.4 110.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 52.1 55.3 54.9 103.2 61.0 51.8 27.3 42.9 62.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 52.9 57.4 63.8 107.3 62.5 53.6 33.8 46.5 61.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 45.9 69.2 51.5 93.4 53.2 48.4 46.3 65.4 87.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 83.3 78.1 77.9 97.1 54.3 48.2 55.5 73.4 93.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 82.8 80.8 55.7 96.6 56.0 49.8 56.9 74.2 92.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 52.0 75.5 77.1 99.6 55.8 49.7 52.4 69.1 87.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 74.9 73.9 62.7 99.1 57.3 50.7 50.3 66.2 84.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 47.8 65.3 50.3 88.6 50.1 44.8 49.1 65.3 83.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 74.8 74.9 59.6 99.1 57.4 50.3 55.3 68.7 82.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 105.8 105.1 72.2 100.8 57.7 50.5 76.8 95.8 116.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 70.6 75.8 71.4 104.7 61.0 55.1 46.5 63.3 82.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 57.1 61.0 57.9 105.8 61.7 53.8 34.5 49.1 66.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 81.0 83.9 69.8 102.1 59.4 53.9 56.5 73.5 92.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 51.2 52.9 60.1 102.2 60.1 51.8 33.5 45.0 58.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 76.0 106.0 79.9 99.3 55.9 50.0 77.4 98.2 121.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 82.1 83.0 58.0 99.2 57.6 51.9 63.8 76.7 90.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------