***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 15.3 15.7 17.4 0.8 65.1 58.5 14.2 15.0 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.7 17.4 0.9 68.0 60.5 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.8 17.3 17.6 0.7 64.7 58.5 15.3 16.4 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.6 14.9 0.6 63.1 57.5 10.4 11.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 12.2 13.7 15.0 0.7 64.7 58.5 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.1 13.1 0.9 71.3 63.9 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.7 17.5 0.8 66.6 59.5 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 8.7 8.8 13.1 1.0 71.2 64.3 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.5 15.3 15.2 0.7 65.3 59.1 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 15.2 15.2 13.9 0.8 68.4 61.7 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 15.1 15.1 14.5 0.8 67.8 61.1 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.0 13.8 0.9 69.1 62.7 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.3 14.2 13.1 0.8 67.8 61.4 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.9 15.4 0.8 67.1 60.1 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 15.9 16.1 16.3 0.6 63.0 57.7 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.3 14.0 0.8 67.7 61.0 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.3 17.4 0.9 69.2 61.1 14.4 15.3 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 13.9 13.9 13.3 0.8 69.0 62.2 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.6 17.4 0.9 67.6 60.3 13.8 14.6 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 9.7 9.8 11.0 1.0 72.1 65.0 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.9 16.6 0.7 64.4 58.4 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.7 15.2 17.2 0.9 67.8 60.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.8 17.2 0.8 67.3 60.3 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.0 15.5 15.2 0.7 66.2 60.1 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.1 14.8 15.8 0.7 64.6 58.1 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.1 13.1 1.0 72.7 65.0 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 13.0 14.7 16.6 0.7 64.9 58.4 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.7 14.0 15.3 0.6 63.6 58.3 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.7 12.7 0.9 70.6 63.3 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.7 17.5 0.8 66.3 59.4 13.9 14.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------