***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.4 17.3 0.1 51.9 49.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.6 17.4 0.3 57.0 53.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.5 17.2 17.6 0.1 51.8 49.4 16.2 17.1 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 11.0 12.1 14.8 -0.2 46.3 46.6 11.3 12.4 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 12.8 13.7 14.8 -0.2 45.0 45.6 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 11.6 12.6 12.9 -0.1 47.3 48.0 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.7 17.6 0.4 57.4 53.3 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.9 8.0 12.8 -0.1 48.7 47.5 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 13.9 14.7 15.0 -0.2 44.5 44.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 13.7 14.6 13.6 -0.2 45.7 45.7 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.5 14.4 -0.2 46.0 46.4 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 11.5 12.6 13.6 -0.1 47.9 47.2 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 12.8 13.7 12.7 -0.4 41.0 43.7 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.5 15.8 15.3 0.2 54.0 50.7 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 14.9 15.6 16.1 -0.3 43.7 45.0 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 13.9 14.7 13.7 -0.3 43.1 45.1 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.3 17.4 0.4 58.9 54.7 14.9 15.8 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 12.3 13.3 13.1 -0.1 47.0 46.7 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.5 17.3 0.3 55.9 52.4 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 8.3 9.2 10.6 -0.1 46.8 46.8 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 13.8 14.7 16.5 -0.1 46.9 46.1 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.1 17.2 0.4 57.3 53.6 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.0 17.2 0.3 55.8 52.3 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 13.8 15.0 15.0 0.0 50.0 48.1 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 13.7 14.7 15.7 -0.1 48.2 46.9 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 12.7 13.8 12.7 -0.1 47.4 47.1 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 13.6 14.9 16.5 0.0 51.0 48.5 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.4 15.1 -0.3 43.9 45.3 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.0 12.1 12.4 -0.1 48.7 48.1 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.9 17.5 0.3 55.9 52.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------