***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 26.8 25.8 25.7 -0.4 44.4 44.9 24.5 26.3 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 26.5 26.1 26.5 -0.1 49.1 49.2 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 26.6 25.7 26.0 -0.4 44.6 45.0 24.5 26.2 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 19.6 18.5 22.4 -0.5 43.1 43.7 17.6 19.1 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 27.0 25.9 23.8 -0.5 43.4 44.0 24.9 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 25.5 24.4 20.7 -0.5 42.2 42.9 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 26.0 25.8 26.4 0.0 49.5 49.7 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 14.7 14.1 21.5 -0.2 47.0 47.2 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 26.3 25.5 24.8 -0.3 45.5 45.9 24.2 25.9 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 26.1 25.5 22.8 -0.2 47.1 47.3 24.1 25.8 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 26.8 26.0 24.1 -0.3 45.7 46.0 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 25.6 24.9 22.5 -0.3 46.0 46.3 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 26.9 26.0 23.2 -0.3 45.2 45.7 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 26.4 26.4 25.4 0.3 54.0 53.8 24.3 26.0 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.5 26.2 24.9 -0.6 39.7 40.8 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 27.4 26.5 23.2 -0.4 44.5 45.0 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 25.8 26.0 26.6 0.4 54.9 54.8 23.9 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 25.5 25.1 22.1 -0.1 49.3 49.3 23.5 25.2 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 26.0 25.6 26.4 -0.1 48.9 49.0 24.0 25.7 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 20.9 20.4 19.8 -0.1 48.2 48.4 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 26.6 25.5 25.7 -0.5 43.8 44.3 24.4 26.1 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 26.4 26.8 26.8 0.6 57.9 57.4 24.4 26.1 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 26.4 26.4 26.5 0.2 53.3 53.1 24.3 26.0 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 25.9 25.5 24.8 0.0 49.8 49.9 23.9 25.6 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 26.7 25.6 24.5 -0.5 42.9 43.4 24.7 26.3 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 26.3 25.6 21.5 -0.3 45.5 45.8 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 26.3 25.5 25.1 -0.4 44.3 44.8 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 27.5 26.3 23.3 -0.6 41.3 42.2 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 20.7 20.3 21.5 0.0 49.9 50.0 18.6 20.3 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 26.3 25.7 26.3 -0.3 46.4 46.7 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------