***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 27.8 28.2 27.7 1.4 72.8 64.7 25.1 26.4 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 27.3 27.8 28.2 1.6 73.8 65.5 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 27.4 27.7 28.1 1.6 73.1 65.2 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 20.7 21.3 25.6 1.8 77.4 68.6 17.7 19.0 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 28.0 28.6 26.4 1.8 75.9 67.5 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 26.9 27.5 24.4 2.1 78.8 70.5 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 27.0 27.6 28.1 1.6 74.5 65.7 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 16.3 17.0 24.6 2.1 78.0 69.5 13.0 14.5 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 27.4 28.0 27.0 1.8 76.2 67.5 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 27.2 27.9 25.4 2.0 77.7 69.0 24.2 25.5 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 27.8 28.5 26.7 2.0 78.1 69.4 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 26.9 27.6 25.8 2.1 78.1 69.5 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 28.1 28.9 26.0 2.1 78.9 70.3 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 27.1 28.0 26.8 2.1 79.3 69.4 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 28.4 29.0 27.5 1.7 77.2 68.9 25.6 26.9 28.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 28.7 29.5 26.2 2.1 79.1 70.2 25.4 26.8 28.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 26.7 27.5 28.1 1.8 76.3 66.6 23.7 25.2 26.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 26.8 27.7 24.7 2.2 79.3 69.8 23.6 25.0 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 26.7 27.2 28.1 1.7 74.0 65.9 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 22.7 23.5 22.6 2.2 79.0 70.2 19.2 20.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 27.4 27.9 27.7 1.6 73.9 65.6 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 27.1 28.0 27.9 1.9 77.2 67.6 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 27.2 28.0 28.2 2.0 77.8 68.6 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 26.9 27.6 26.7 2.0 78.1 68.8 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 27.5 27.8 26.4 1.4 72.5 64.5 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 27.7 28.7 25.6 2.5 81.3 72.8 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 27.0 27.4 27.0 1.4 72.9 64.7 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 28.5 29.1 26.5 1.8 77.7 69.2 25.6 26.9 28.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 22.3 23.2 24.0 2.2 79.8 70.2 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 27.1 27.5 28.0 1.5 72.7 64.9 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------