***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.5 27.5 0.9 63.2 57.9 25.9 27.3 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 27.5 28.5 28.1 1.3 67.8 60.8 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.6 28.2 27.9 1.0 63.7 58.1 25.4 26.9 28.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 20.5 21.4 25.6 1.0 64.4 59.2 18.6 20.1 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 27.9 28.6 25.8 1.0 63.5 58.1 25.7 27.3 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 27.7 27.9 23.7 1.5 70.5 63.4 24.4 25.9 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 27.4 28.4 28.1 1.3 68.3 61.5 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.1 17.2 24.3 1.4 68.3 61.5 14.0 15.5 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 27.5 28.1 26.0 1.0 63.4 57.8 25.2 26.8 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 27.3 28.2 24.8 1.2 66.5 59.9 25.1 26.7 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 27.5 28.5 25.7 1.3 67.0 60.7 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 27.7 27.8 25.4 1.4 69.1 62.1 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 28.8 29.0 24.6 1.5 69.8 62.6 25.5 27.1 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 28.5 28.7 26.1 1.4 69.4 61.4 25.3 26.8 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 28.6 29.3 26.6 0.9 63.6 59.1 26.7 28.1 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 28.3 29.6 25.3 1.4 68.7 62.0 26.1 27.8 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 26.9 28.2 28.3 1.5 71.3 63.2 24.8 26.3 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.6 27.7 24.3 1.4 68.3 60.8 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 27.0 27.9 28.1 1.2 67.0 60.2 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 23.6 23.7 22.0 1.5 70.5 62.5 20.1 21.8 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 27.6 28.0 26.9 0.8 61.5 56.6 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 28.5 28.6 28.0 1.4 70.0 62.3 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 28.4 28.3 27.9 1.3 68.0 60.8 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.0 28.0 25.9 1.3 67.0 60.0 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 27.7 28.2 25.7 0.8 61.2 56.8 25.6 27.2 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 28.6 29.3 25.4 2.0 76.1 67.1 25.1 26.7 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.8 26.6 0.9 63.3 58.2 25.2 26.7 28.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 28.7 29.5 26.0 1.1 65.1 59.8 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.0 23.2 23.5 1.5 69.4 61.3 19.7 21.3 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 27.4 28.2 27.9 1.1 66.0 59.6 25.3 26.8 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------