***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 27.4 27.7 27.1 0.5 62.1 58.7 26.3 27.1 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 27.6 27.6 27.7 0.9 68.5 64.0 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 27.1 27.4 27.5 0.6 63.7 60.0 25.9 26.7 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 20.1 20.5 24.8 0.6 64.2 60.1 19.0 19.8 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.9 25.5 0.6 64.0 59.8 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 26.6 26.7 23.1 0.8 70.2 64.3 25.0 25.8 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 27.4 27.4 27.7 0.9 68.7 64.1 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.3 23.7 0.9 72.5 65.9 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 27.0 27.5 26.0 0.6 65.7 61.0 25.7 26.6 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 27.4 27.5 24.5 0.8 70.7 64.6 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 27.8 27.9 25.6 0.8 69.7 64.1 25.9 26.8 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 26.8 27.0 24.8 0.9 72.0 65.4 25.1 25.9 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 28.0 28.2 24.6 0.9 71.3 64.9 26.2 27.0 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 27.5 27.9 26.1 1.1 76.4 69.0 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 28.0 28.2 26.4 0.4 61.4 58.4 27.0 27.7 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.8 25.0 0.8 70.2 64.4 26.7 27.6 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 27.1 27.4 27.8 1.1 74.2 67.9 25.3 26.1 26.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 26.8 27.1 23.9 1.0 74.4 67.2 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 27.1 27.1 27.7 0.8 68.4 63.9 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 22.5 22.9 21.7 1.1 75.6 68.0 20.6 21.5 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 27.1 27.4 26.9 0.5 61.9 58.2 25.9 26.8 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 27.6 27.9 27.6 1.2 75.4 68.9 25.7 26.6 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 27.5 27.7 27.7 1.0 73.0 67.1 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 27.1 27.3 25.9 0.9 72.4 66.1 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.4 25.5 0.4 59.4 56.6 26.0 26.9 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 27.5 27.9 24.5 1.2 76.8 69.4 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.8 27.0 26.3 0.5 62.0 58.6 25.7 26.5 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 28.1 28.4 25.4 0.5 63.9 60.1 27.0 27.8 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 22.1 22.5 23.1 1.1 76.0 68.2 20.2 21.1 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 26.8 27.3 27.6 0.7 65.4 61.7 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------