***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 17.9 22.1 11.9 98.9 63.8 55.4 6.8 13.7 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 18.2 20.7 9.8 93.8 62.2 51.1 7.7 14.2 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 17.1 20.8 10.8 94.3 62.4 53.5 7.5 14.1 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 17.5 20.7 11.4 94.7 62.3 56.0 8.0 14.4 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 15.7 20.8 12.1 101.0 65.1 58.8 7.8 13.6 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 17.4 20.3 15.8 95.1 61.0 56.4 8.3 14.8 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.3 18.6 10.6 91.4 61.5 49.2 7.4 13.4 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 21.4 27.4 19.0 107.7 65.9 60.2 10.6 18.0 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 15.8 22.7 15.1 112.5 68.0 62.0 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 16.9 23.1 18.5 107.7 66.0 59.9 6.7 13.5 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 13.2 17.3 13.1 98.2 64.7 58.7 5.6 10.8 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.0 18.4 15.0 111.1 67.5 62.3 4.9 10.0 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.9 19.8 13.0 102.5 64.6 60.3 6.1 12.1 20.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 20.1 24.8 16.1 106.4 65.7 56.1 9.5 16.2 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.9 15.3 10.3 101.3 65.2 55.7 4.0 8.7 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 12.2 16.0 12.2 100.2 64.3 58.9 5.1 9.9 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 19.5 20.9 10.3 91.5 61.5 49.2 7.1 14.1 24.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 17.5 22.9 20.0 115.5 68.1 60.5 9.8 15.1 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 18.8 22.8 10.4 97.8 63.6 53.6 7.9 14.7 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 16.1 22.3 19.7 108.2 65.6 60.0 7.2 13.6 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 14.8 20.5 13.1 108.4 66.6 59.5 6.5 12.3 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 18.5 20.2 10.2 93.4 61.8 49.6 9.1 15.0 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 14.9 18.3 11.2 96.8 63.3 54.9 6.8 12.2 19.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 18.0 23.5 15.1 104.9 65.5 57.7 8.4 14.9 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 14.5 18.4 11.8 97.6 63.4 56.2 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.4 12.6 10.6 82.1 56.5 50.1 4.7 9.8 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.7 18.7 11.8 95.1 62.5 53.7 5.6 11.8 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 10.9 13.7 12.1 98.7 63.6 56.9 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 20.2 26.4 18.7 107.8 65.4 58.0 8.7 16.3 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 20.1 22.2 9.8 89.2 60.7 50.4 9.4 16.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------