***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 5.0 8.8 13.0 71.8 45.0 37.0 5.3 10.7 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.8 15.9 13.4 90.5 58.2 47.7 5.7 11.9 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 22.5 17.9 14.0 83.2 53.7 45.3 6.8 15.5 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.6 7.6 11.0 56.8 38.3 32.3 5.7 13.0 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.4 8.9 12.6 67.9 45.1 38.1 5.1 10.8 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 5.8 7.9 12.2 56.7 38.8 33.6 6.2 11.8 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.7 16.5 14.2 100.5 62.6 50.4 4.9 10.3 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.2 14.8 11.0 59.4 41.2 35.9 11.2 19.0 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 5.9 8.5 10.3 56.9 38.7 31.4 6.6 13.2 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 9.4 12.8 11.7 57.7 38.8 33.5 10.2 18.5 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.6 10.9 14.1 71.2 45.5 40.7 7.0 12.6 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.2 10.6 60.7 42.9 36.6 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.0 8.3 13.4 66.0 45.0 38.3 5.1 9.9 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 8.8 13.9 13.9 68.2 44.9 37.0 8.6 16.4 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.9 6.8 11.3 62.4 45.5 37.5 3.9 8.1 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 4.1 5.3 11.6 59.2 38.5 34.2 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.2 12.9 12.2 91.2 58.5 45.7 4.9 9.7 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 6.8 9.1 11.9 53.1 36.0 31.2 8.1 15.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 18.5 15.6 13.0 83.0 54.9 45.0 6.5 13.2 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.0 11.4 13.7 65.4 42.1 36.6 8.1 14.6 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 5.8 9.2 11.5 63.2 42.1 33.4 6.5 12.0 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.7 13.4 13.8 93.1 59.8 48.0 5.3 9.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.0 11.2 12.7 75.5 51.1 42.6 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 11.0 17.1 12.9 65.6 43.0 36.1 11.9 21.4 34.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 7.2 12.1 16.6 75.8 48.1 40.9 6.3 13.0 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.6 9.5 11.5 66.8 48.0 42.9 4.9 10.2 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.9 13.6 16.0 78.2 49.4 41.6 7.5 13.8 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 5.1 7.1 10.1 53.2 38.6 32.5 5.6 10.9 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 13.1 18.0 15.4 64.9 42.5 36.9 13.4 22.0 32.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.8 16.4 14.3 92.5 59.3 48.9 5.2 11.5 20.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------