***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 5.3 13.5 12.3 87.9 58.6 40.0 5.3 10.3 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 5.0 15.8 11.6 100.5 63.7 42.2 5.0 10.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.6 16.4 12.3 91.3 60.1 40.1 6.5 12.0 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.7 14.2 12.5 99.7 63.8 41.4 3.7 8.3 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.8 18.0 12.8 98.2 63.3 40.8 4.4 10.2 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.4 8.6 12.9 74.2 54.1 40.0 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 4.2 14.3 10.7 90.1 60.2 41.5 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 4.8 14.2 12.7 81.6 56.7 35.0 4.8 10.8 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.3 10.6 13.1 88.9 59.8 38.1 3.4 7.3 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.7 14.5 13.9 85.4 58.3 36.7 4.8 10.4 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.5 12.8 10.9 90.8 60.8 38.6 3.6 8.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 2.8 7.9 10.0 74.7 53.4 33.6 3.2 6.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.1 7.0 10.7 68.6 51.2 35.9 3.4 6.9 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.6 20.8 15.4 96.7 62.5 40.9 6.4 13.4 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.4 8.7 9.7 93.8 62.5 39.5 2.6 5.5 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.4 9.1 10.9 81.3 56.7 38.3 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 5.2 17.1 11.4 101.9 64.2 43.4 5.1 10.4 18.2 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.6 11.4 15.7 85.6 57.7 37.9 3.4 8.1 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 5.1 17.5 12.3 104.2 64.9 41.5 5.3 10.6 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.6 11.6 16.0 86.0 57.5 37.6 5.0 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 3.2 11.1 11.9 83.3 57.3 36.9 3.4 8.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.5 17.7 13.0 113.5 68.3 44.1 4.7 9.4 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 6.2 20.6 13.4 108.3 66.4 41.9 6.9 12.5 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 6.7 18.9 14.4 92.4 60.4 39.6 6.6 13.0 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.8 12.5 13.8 89.5 59.8 41.4 5.0 9.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.5 7.2 8.0 59.8 49.9 35.0 3.5 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 5.4 14.9 13.5 88.2 59.1 41.8 5.5 11.0 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.4 7.4 11.5 98.7 64.0 40.2 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 7.2 18.7 16.7 88.3 58.6 40.1 7.4 14.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 5.6 16.3 11.9 96.7 62.7 42.4 6.1 11.1 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------