***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 47.0 63.3 47.6 86.2 46.3 41.9 51.1 67.0 84.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 52.4 72.2 43.9 92.7 52.7 44.2 55.0 69.5 85.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 58.3 77.1 46.9 88.6 48.3 42.1 61.3 78.8 98.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 43.0 59.1 44.7 83.0 44.6 38.7 46.3 65.2 87.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 41.9 58.8 46.5 86.7 47.3 41.9 44.4 61.7 81.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 34.9 42.8 49.6 73.0 35.7 33.7 40.6 55.4 72.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 46.0 65.0 45.1 93.6 53.1 45.5 47.4 62.1 78.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 63.8 74.4 50.3 80.3 37.7 35.9 68.5 89.7 112.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 39.3 51.6 47.6 82.5 43.5 40.1 41.8 58.1 76.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 55.7 66.0 53.4 80.9 38.8 36.9 59.6 78.9 100.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 42.0 52.6 45.9 85.7 44.8 40.9 42.5 57.4 73.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 31.9 39.4 42.1 79.1 39.1 37.0 34.2 49.2 66.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 32.9 40.1 44.5 76.1 38.8 36.1 35.8 49.0 64.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 67.6 82.1 56.8 86.4 44.7 40.4 70.1 87.5 106.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 25.7 37.9 38.4 82.2 46.7 41.3 25.7 41.0 59.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 27.6 35.1 43.3 79.4 40.8 37.3 29.3 42.5 58.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 41.5 68.3 42.8 94.1 53.6 45.1 45.5 63.8 85.5 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 50.6 58.9 58.4 80.7 37.7 36.1 53.8 71.4 90.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 53.5 73.8 44.5 91.5 52.0 43.2 56.1 72.0 89.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 46.5 55.4 58.8 82.0 37.4 35.7 51.1 67.3 85.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 45.2 59.2 46.3 83.1 44.0 40.0 49.3 64.8 81.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 45.7 69.2 45.8 97.2 56.0 47.1 47.4 63.1 80.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 51.9 67.7 45.9 88.1 49.3 41.2 55.3 68.4 82.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 70.1 84.3 52.6 83.4 42.1 38.5 74.6 92.8 112.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 41.4 59.6 53.5 88.1 48.8 43.5 44.2 60.9 80.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 32.1 36.2 34.9 69.2 35.2 34.1 34.3 48.7 65.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 50.3 69.1 52.8 87.7 48.0 43.5 54.0 71.2 90.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 30.1 39.3 42.6 82.0 44.8 39.0 31.2 43.2 56.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 71.6 83.2 61.7 83.2 39.2 37.4 75.9 96.8 119.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 60.1 77.0 45.5 91.7 51.7 43.9 62.8 75.5 89.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------