***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 14.9 14.2 15.5 -0.5 41.4 41.9 13.8 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 14.6 13.7 15.4 -0.5 41.1 41.5 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 16.1 15.6 15.8 -0.3 45.2 45.4 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 11.4 11.0 13.1 -0.1 47.5 47.6 9.8 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 12.9 12.6 13.9 -0.2 47.1 47.2 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 11.8 11.4 10.7 -0.3 43.5 44.1 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 14.6 14.1 15.4 -0.4 42.8 43.2 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 6.6 6.7 11.3 0.2 55.1 54.9 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 94 6 100 13.9 14.0 14.3 0.2 53.8 53.5 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 94 6 100 13.7 14.0 12.4 0.3 57.2 56.9 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 13.6 13.7 13.8 0.2 55.0 54.8 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 94 6 100 11.7 11.6 12.2 0.0 51.0 50.9 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 13.3 13.1 12.4 0.0 50.3 50.3 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 14.6 15.2 14.5 0.7 64.1 63.4 13.5 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 14.8 14.5 14.9 -0.1 47.7 47.9 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 14.1 13.8 13.0 -0.1 48.6 48.7 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 14.8 14.4 15.4 -0.3 45.3 45.5 13.7 14.7 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 93 7 100 12.4 12.7 11.9 0.4 57.4 57.1 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 14.5 14.0 15.5 -0.4 43.8 44.1 13.4 14.4 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 93 7 100 8.1 8.3 9.8 0.2 55.7 55.3 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 94 6 100 13.9 13.8 15.2 0.0 49.7 49.7 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 96 4 100 14.0 13.8 15.7 -0.1 48.9 48.9 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 14.1 13.9 15.7 -0.1 49.2 49.2 13.0 14.0 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 14.0 14.4 14.2 0.4 58.7 58.4 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.3 13.3 14.2 -0.8 37.1 37.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 12.6 12.3 11.0 -0.2 45.6 45.9 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 14.5 13.3 14.7 -0.8 36.4 37.1 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 12.9 12.7 13.7 -0.1 48.5 48.6 12.1 12.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 10.7 11.2 11.1 0.4 59.6 59.1 9.4 10.6 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 14.9 14.2 15.6 -0.5 41.7 42.1 13.6 14.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------