***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.1 16.1 -0.5 41.4 43.0 13.7 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.2 15.9 -0.6 38.5 40.8 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 14.5 15.2 16.3 -0.5 40.7 42.3 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.3 10.2 13.7 -0.5 40.9 42.8 9.7 10.8 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 11.5 12.0 14.0 -0.6 38.4 40.8 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 10.6 11.0 11.5 -0.6 36.8 39.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.6 15.9 -0.6 39.6 41.7 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.4 11.3 -0.7 35.0 37.6 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 12.8 13.2 14.1 -0.6 37.7 40.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 12.7 13.0 12.3 -0.7 36.2 38.8 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 12.7 13.0 13.5 -0.7 34.8 37.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.8 12.3 -0.8 34.0 36.9 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 12.1 12.4 12.3 -0.7 35.5 38.3 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.7 13.8 14.0 -0.5 40.3 42.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 13.9 14.4 15.3 -0.6 37.4 39.8 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.2 12.9 -0.7 35.0 38.1 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.8 13.9 15.7 -0.6 39.9 42.0 13.5 14.5 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 11.2 11.7 11.7 -0.5 38.6 40.8 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.5 16.0 -0.6 39.5 41.4 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.6 9.7 -0.5 39.8 41.6 7.2 8.1 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.2 15.4 -0.5 39.5 41.4 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.2 15.8 -0.5 41.4 43.0 12.8 13.6 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.0 15.9 -0.5 40.5 42.0 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 12.7 13.3 14.0 -0.5 40.0 41.9 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 12.3 12.9 14.8 -0.6 38.5 40.8 12.6 13.6 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.9 11.9 11.6 -0.7 35.4 37.8 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 13.9 12.9 15.5 -0.6 40.0 41.9 12.4 13.5 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 11.7 12.2 14.2 -0.5 39.2 41.3 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.8 11.0 -0.5 39.4 41.3 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 13.1 13.6 16.1 -0.6 39.5 41.5 13.2 14.2 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------