***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 13.8 14.3 16.5 -0.8 35.9 40.3 14.1 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 13.3 13.8 16.3 -0.9 34.6 39.4 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 15.1 15.6 16.7 -0.8 35.1 40.2 15.4 16.5 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 9.9 10.4 13.9 -0.9 32.7 38.3 10.4 11.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 12.0 12.3 13.9 -1.0 30.3 36.7 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 11.1 11.2 11.9 -1.0 28.6 36.1 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 13.7 14.2 16.4 -0.8 35.6 39.9 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 5.8 6.1 11.7 -1.0 29.2 36.0 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 13.4 13.6 14.1 -0.9 31.2 37.5 13.7 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 13.2 13.4 12.5 -0.9 30.4 37.0 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 13.2 13.2 13.3 -1.1 27.0 34.4 13.6 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 11.2 11.3 12.5 -1.1 28.2 35.6 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 12.5 12.6 11.9 -1.1 27.5 35.7 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 13.9 14.2 14.2 -0.8 33.4 39.3 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 14.5 14.8 15.3 -1.0 30.6 36.1 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 13.1 13.2 12.7 -1.1 27.0 35.0 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 14.2 14.7 16.3 -0.7 37.1 41.0 14.5 15.4 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 11.9 12.2 11.8 -0.8 31.6 38.2 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 13.6 13.9 16.3 -0.9 34.3 39.5 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 7.8 8.0 9.6 -0.8 31.4 38.4 8.1 8.8 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 13.3 13.6 15.5 -0.8 33.9 39.3 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 13.2 13.7 16.1 -0.8 36.7 41.3 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 13.0 13.4 16.2 -0.9 33.8 39.5 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 13.2 13.6 14.0 -0.8 33.0 39.2 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 13.0 13.4 14.9 -0.9 34.0 39.3 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 12.3 12.3 11.8 -1.0 28.7 37.1 12.5 13.3 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 12.8 13.3 15.7 -0.8 35.7 40.2 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 12.4 12.7 14.3 -0.9 31.3 37.2 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 10.0 10.3 11.2 -0.9 31.2 37.8 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 13.7 14.1 16.5 -0.9 34.8 39.6 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------