***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.4 17.5 -0.1 47.9 47.6 14.8 15.5 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 14.2 15.1 17.3 -0.2 46.3 46.5 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.2 17.1 17.8 -0.1 48.6 48.2 16.3 17.2 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 11.4 12.6 15.2 0.0 50.1 49.5 11.6 12.6 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 12.9 13.9 15.0 -0.2 45.5 46.1 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 11.9 12.7 13.1 -0.2 44.7 45.6 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.5 17.4 -0.1 47.8 47.7 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.2 7.9 12.9 -0.3 43.6 45.2 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.1 15.0 15.1 -0.2 45.3 46.2 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 14.0 14.8 13.6 -0.2 44.7 46.1 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 13.7 14.4 14.5 -0.4 42.1 43.9 14.0 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 11.8 12.5 13.7 -0.3 42.6 44.4 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 13.2 14.0 13.1 -0.3 43.2 45.0 13.5 14.3 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.7 15.3 0.0 49.8 49.8 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.1 15.8 16.6 -0.2 45.9 46.6 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 14.2 15.1 14.0 -0.3 44.4 45.7 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 15.0 15.9 17.2 -0.1 48.2 48.1 15.1 16.0 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.6 12.9 -0.1 48.0 48.8 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.2 17.5 -0.2 47.2 47.2 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.6 10.7 -0.1 48.7 49.3 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 14.0 14.9 16.6 -0.1 48.0 47.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 13.9 14.9 17.2 0.0 49.8 49.1 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 13.9 14.8 17.4 -0.1 49.0 48.6 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.1 15.2 15.1 0.0 49.1 49.2 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 14.0 14.9 16.0 -0.1 48.1 48.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 13.1 13.9 12.9 -0.3 44.5 45.3 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 13.8 14.8 16.7 -0.1 48.3 48.0 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.9 15.6 -0.1 48.4 48.3 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.2 12.3 -0.1 47.5 48.4 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.6 17.6 -0.2 47.0 47.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------