***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.4 14.6 16.4 -0.5 37.7 39.7 14.5 14.9 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 13.7 14.0 16.2 -0.6 35.6 38.1 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 15.6 15.9 16.6 -0.4 38.8 41.0 15.7 16.3 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.1 14.0 -0.4 38.6 41.2 10.8 11.5 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.7 14.2 -0.5 34.8 37.9 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 11.5 11.6 11.8 -0.5 31.3 35.2 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 14.1 14.3 16.3 -0.5 37.7 39.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.6 11.8 -0.4 35.2 38.3 6.6 7.1 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.0 14.4 -0.4 37.6 40.1 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.8 12.7 -0.4 37.5 40.2 13.7 14.2 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.6 13.8 -0.5 34.0 37.3 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.6 12.7 -0.5 32.8 36.3 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 12.9 13.0 12.4 -0.5 32.2 36.1 13.1 13.6 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.7 14.5 -0.1 45.4 46.4 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.8 15.5 -0.5 35.0 38.0 14.8 15.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 13.7 13.8 13.2 -0.5 32.2 35.9 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 14.4 14.8 16.1 -0.4 39.1 41.1 14.5 15.1 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.5 12.1 -0.3 40.4 42.6 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 13.9 14.2 16.3 -0.5 37.2 39.6 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.4 9.9 -0.3 40.1 42.4 8.2 8.7 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.9 15.7 -0.4 39.0 41.3 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 13.5 13.9 16.2 -0.3 41.5 43.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 13.5 13.8 16.3 -0.4 40.0 42.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.1 14.3 -0.2 42.7 44.4 13.7 14.4 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 13.5 13.7 15.0 -0.6 33.6 36.6 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 12.5 12.6 11.8 -0.5 31.5 35.4 12.6 13.1 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 13.4 13.6 15.7 -0.6 34.8 37.3 13.6 14.1 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.9 14.4 -0.4 37.0 39.9 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.4 10.9 11.4 -0.3 41.1 43.2 10.6 11.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 14.1 14.4 16.5 -0.5 36.7 39.0 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------