***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 27.0 25.9 25.6 -0.5 43.5 44.0 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 26.7 25.2 25.6 -0.9 39.2 39.9 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 26.8 25.1 25.3 -1.0 38.0 39.0 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 20.0 17.8 21.4 -1.3 32.7 34.3 17.8 19.3 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 24.3 24.4 22.4 -1.8 27.8 29.5 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 22.2 22.3 19.1 -2.5 19.2 20.7 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 26.2 25.3 25.7 -0.5 43.9 44.4 24.3 25.8 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 11.6 11.8 19.5 -2.4 22.2 23.9 12.9 14.4 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 23.8 23.8 23.4 -1.7 28.9 30.6 24.3 25.9 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 23.3 23.4 20.8 -2.1 25.3 27.0 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 23.8 23.8 22.4 -2.3 23.7 25.5 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 22.5 22.6 20.8 -2.4 21.9 23.6 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 23.4 23.3 21.4 -2.8 18.6 20.2 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 23.9 24.2 23.3 -1.4 33.1 34.3 24.2 25.8 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 25.5 25.6 24.4 -1.5 30.0 32.0 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 24.2 24.2 21.6 -2.5 21.1 22.9 25.5 27.1 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 25.9 25.0 25.6 -0.5 44.2 44.7 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 22.5 22.7 19.8 -2.1 25.1 26.8 23.5 25.2 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 26.2 24.6 25.6 -0.9 38.9 39.7 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 17.6 17.7 17.3 -2.4 21.4 22.9 19.0 20.7 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 26.9 24.6 24.6 -1.3 33.9 35.2 24.5 26.1 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 26.3 25.5 25.5 -0.4 45.2 45.7 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 26.5 24.9 25.4 -0.9 38.6 39.5 24.3 25.9 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 23.3 23.6 23.0 -1.6 30.9 32.4 23.8 25.4 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 27.1 25.1 23.8 -1.2 35.5 36.6 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 99 1 0 100 22.9 23.1 19.8 -2.9 17.5 18.9 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 26.5 25.3 24.8 -0.7 41.0 41.6 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 25.3 25.4 22.4 -1.7 28.1 30.1 25.8 27.2 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 17.4 17.5 18.9 -2.2 23.6 25.2 18.6 20.4 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 26.4 25.1 25.7 -0.8 40.4 41.0 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------