***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 27.2 26.3 26.0 -0.5 44.0 44.4 25.5 26.7 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 24.2 25.3 26.0 -0.7 41.2 42.0 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 24.1 25.3 26.1 -0.6 43.1 43.5 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 17.4 18.3 23.0 -0.7 39.5 41.4 17.8 19.1 20.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 24.5 25.2 23.6 -1.0 35.9 38.6 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 23.1 23.6 20.9 -1.3 31.6 35.8 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 24.0 25.2 26.0 -0.5 43.7 43.9 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 12.7 13.4 21.5 -1.2 34.4 37.5 13.3 14.6 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 23.9 24.7 24.3 -1.0 37.1 39.3 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 23.9 24.7 22.4 -1.0 36.5 39.0 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 24.1 24.7 23.7 -1.3 33.2 36.6 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 23.5 23.9 22.7 -1.4 31.9 35.7 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 24.3 24.4 22.6 -1.7 27.7 32.6 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 24.0 25.1 24.1 -0.5 42.9 43.2 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 25.3 25.9 25.2 -1.0 35.3 38.2 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 24.9 25.3 23.0 -1.5 30.6 34.7 25.6 26.9 28.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 23.6 24.9 25.9 -0.4 44.4 44.5 23.9 25.4 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 23.4 24.3 21.7 -0.8 38.7 40.4 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 23.8 24.8 26.0 -0.7 41.8 42.4 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 18.9 19.6 19.3 -1.0 36.2 38.9 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 24.2 25.2 25.4 -0.7 40.7 41.9 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 26.4 25.4 25.7 -0.4 44.7 44.6 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 26.4 25.2 26.0 -0.6 42.8 43.3 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 23.6 24.7 24.0 -0.6 41.8 42.6 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 26.8 25.4 24.3 -0.7 40.3 41.5 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 24.0 24.2 21.9 -1.7 28.2 32.9 24.6 25.9 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 26.2 25.1 25.2 -0.5 42.9 43.4 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 25.3 26.0 23.8 -0.9 36.3 39.1 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 18.6 19.5 20.8 -0.9 38.3 40.2 19.0 20.5 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 24.0 25.1 26.1 -0.6 42.4 42.9 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------