***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.0 26.7 -0.4 42.7 44.3 26.5 27.3 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 27.2 26.3 26.6 -0.6 39.0 41.2 26.0 26.8 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 27.3 26.4 26.8 -0.5 41.3 43.2 26.0 26.9 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 18.9 19.4 23.9 -0.5 38.5 41.0 19.1 20.0 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 26.1 26.3 24.3 -0.9 31.2 34.9 26.4 27.3 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 24.5 24.5 21.5 -1.2 23.4 28.5 25.1 25.9 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 27.0 26.3 26.6 -0.4 42.5 44.2 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 14.1 14.3 22.2 -1.1 28.2 32.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 25.5 25.8 24.7 -0.9 32.1 35.5 25.8 26.8 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 25.4 25.6 23.0 -0.9 30.9 34.7 25.7 26.6 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 25.7 25.7 24.2 -1.2 26.7 31.1 26.0 27.0 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 24.7 24.8 23.5 -1.3 25.5 30.2 25.2 26.1 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 25.6 25.5 23.0 -1.6 20.4 25.9 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 25.6 26.0 24.6 -0.6 38.2 40.9 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 26.8 27.1 25.7 -0.8 33.0 36.8 27.1 27.9 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 26.3 26.2 23.6 -1.3 24.1 29.1 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 25.2 25.9 26.5 -0.3 44.0 45.5 25.4 26.2 27.0 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 24.8 25.1 22.3 -0.8 32.9 36.4 25.1 25.9 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 26.7 25.9 26.7 -0.6 39.5 41.7 25.5 26.4 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 20.3 20.5 19.8 -1.0 29.7 33.9 20.7 21.6 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 25.8 26.3 25.9 -0.6 38.0 40.5 26.0 26.9 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 25.7 26.4 26.4 -0.3 44.6 46.0 25.8 26.7 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 25.6 26.2 26.6 -0.5 40.4 42.6 25.8 26.6 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 25.2 25.6 24.5 -0.6 37.6 40.2 25.4 26.3 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 27.5 26.4 24.9 -0.6 38.1 40.5 26.2 27.1 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 25.3 25.2 22.8 -1.6 19.8 25.4 25.9 26.8 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.2 25.8 -0.5 41.1 43.0 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 26.8 27.1 24.5 -0.8 33.4 37.1 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 20.0 20.2 21.4 -0.9 31.6 35.4 20.3 21.2 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 27.0 26.2 26.6 -0.6 40.2 42.3 25.8 26.7 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------