***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.1 18.7 20.8 110.2 66.9 55.1 5.5 10.7 18.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.9 19.0 17.2 100.9 63.4 51.6 6.3 12.1 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.2 23.9 21.8 110.6 66.2 55.7 5.8 12.9 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 25.7 29.4 25.2 137.8 74.6 63.2 5.6 12.0 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 25.3 28.3 25.0 133.7 73.7 62.2 5.9 12.1 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 22.0 25.5 28.0 143.8 76.8 65.2 4.9 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.9 19.2 16.7 99.0 62.9 51.4 6.4 12.4 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 34.7 40.5 27.3 143.9 76.3 63.6 10.8 19.1 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 23.3 25.5 26.1 131.7 73.1 62.9 6.5 12.2 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 34.6 38.4 27.7 137.8 74.7 63.8 10.1 18.4 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 23.5 27.1 25.2 138.9 75.2 62.2 5.8 11.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 17.7 20.4 22.6 137.5 74.8 60.7 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 21.1 26.1 27.3 149.7 78.3 65.9 5.1 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.9 31.4 25.8 114.5 67.8 59.2 10.0 18.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 14.1 19.0 23.2 158.4 79.3 64.5 2.7 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 17.9 22.2 25.7 149.3 77.8 65.0 5.2 9.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.7 14.7 88.5 58.7 47.8 5.0 10.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 24.4 26.3 28.2 131.2 72.7 63.4 8.0 14.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 17.3 21.0 18.0 103.5 64.3 52.9 6.4 12.9 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 24.6 29.8 31.4 146.1 77.3 64.6 7.4 13.3 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.4 19.8 23.3 118.5 69.1 59.1 6.1 11.1 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.5 16.6 97.8 62.3 51.9 4.1 7.8 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.9 18.8 19.6 106.1 65.4 55.5 5.5 11.0 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 35.9 37.3 26.7 125.3 71.2 62.7 12.6 21.2 32.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.4 25.1 25.7 121.7 70.2 60.2 6.5 12.8 21.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 21.0 24.8 22.3 135.8 74.4 63.6 5.1 10.6 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.7 23.2 23.5 114.5 68.0 57.1 7.2 13.2 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 18.5 23.0 24.3 151.1 77.9 64.9 5.0 9.5 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 33.5 39.2 33.3 142.5 76.4 66.5 10.9 18.7 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.2 20.0 18.6 105.7 65.3 53.3 5.8 11.8 20.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------