***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 11.2 15.5 16.0 109.7 68.1 53.1 4.5 8.6 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.5 15.4 13.2 95.1 63.5 49.2 5.2 9.9 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.7 17.6 14.4 92.3 62.5 48.9 6.0 11.7 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.2 11.2 76.8 56.9 44.2 3.6 7.8 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.5 11.6 80.9 58.9 46.0 4.0 8.9 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.8 13.9 91.0 61.5 49.5 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.1 15.4 13.5 100.4 64.9 50.7 4.4 9.0 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.7 16.6 14.6 91.7 61.9 45.9 5.3 10.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.0 13.2 86.2 60.9 48.8 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 14.5 15.1 88.3 61.0 47.3 3.9 9.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.9 10.8 90.0 62.3 47.3 2.9 6.8 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.3 11.7 92.1 62.8 46.1 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.0 9.1 12.5 92.5 63.4 50.9 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.5 17.4 86.2 59.8 48.6 6.4 12.6 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.3 9.3 77.8 58.6 43.0 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.6 11.2 88.4 61.9 48.7 2.7 5.5 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.3 14.7 12.6 95.1 63.2 46.9 4.6 9.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.9 16.7 83.9 58.7 48.2 3.5 8.3 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.6 15.0 13.2 91.1 62.4 48.3 4.8 9.7 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.5 12.4 17.0 92.1 61.1 50.8 4.5 8.7 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.1 14.2 13.2 87.0 61.6 47.9 4.1 9.2 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.3 15.0 12.5 85.8 60.5 46.4 4.9 10.2 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.8 13.0 84.4 59.8 46.7 5.5 10.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.5 15.3 81.2 58.0 47.5 7.0 13.4 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.8 15.1 16.0 101.8 65.5 50.6 5.3 9.5 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.7 9.4 87.9 61.8 47.8 3.0 6.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.1 18.1 17.3 112.6 68.6 53.7 4.8 9.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.6 10.2 75.2 57.3 43.7 2.6 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.7 19.5 18.2 88.4 59.8 50.2 7.3 14.2 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 7.2 18.3 13.8 96.5 64.0 49.8 6.6 12.0 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------