***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.2 18.8 13.0 98.8 64.5 47.5 8.1 13.2 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 8.7 20.1 12.4 109.1 67.8 49.8 8.5 13.3 19.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.0 17.4 14.2 108.4 67.7 49.3 5.9 10.5 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.8 13.4 12.2 98.2 64.1 49.5 4.4 8.4 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.5 13.9 13.1 107.0 67.1 50.7 4.1 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.8 11.6 82.4 57.1 44.2 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.7 16.5 12.1 102.5 65.6 48.6 6.6 11.0 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 21.7 25.0 14.8 102.4 64.3 50.8 8.8 16.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.1 12.6 14.5 105.3 66.2 49.8 3.7 7.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.0 21.4 16.9 106.7 66.2 52.0 9.3 14.7 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.3 14.7 11.4 108.5 67.1 50.8 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 7.0 16.8 10.9 101.6 64.8 48.4 7.0 11.5 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.0 9.6 11.8 101.1 65.3 48.1 4.0 6.5 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.0 27.1 18.7 108.6 67.1 51.9 9.4 16.6 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.5 11.8 8.7 89.5 62.3 46.8 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.1 10.7 11.4 103.4 65.8 48.2 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.2 18.0 11.2 97.7 64.5 48.6 5.5 11.0 18.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.1 21.0 19.7 105.6 65.2 52.1 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.7 16.6 13.0 109.6 68.0 49.9 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.6 17.1 17.5 96.8 60.7 49.2 7.0 12.4 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.5 18.3 14.0 107.2 67.2 49.7 6.0 10.8 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.1 18.1 11.8 97.5 64.2 48.2 6.8 11.9 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.9 22.3 13.9 109.2 67.9 49.8 8.1 13.7 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.1 25.3 18.0 110.5 67.4 52.2 8.3 15.0 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.3 15.6 14.3 105.3 66.5 50.2 6.0 10.1 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.1 10.4 8.6 98.4 64.0 44.2 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 9.7 22.2 13.7 98.5 64.2 48.1 9.4 15.6 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.7 10.7 10.7 93.1 62.6 47.5 3.2 6.8 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.0 26.6 20.0 103.3 63.9 51.1 9.3 17.3 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 8.4 21.3 13.0 110.3 68.0 48.8 8.7 13.8 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------