***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 72.8 80.2 69.5 109.9 64.2 57.0 51.4 66.0 82.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 55.3 77.2 56.4 99.5 58.4 51.7 56.0 69.8 85.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 86.0 95.7 72.4 113.3 65.9 58.2 61.3 77.8 95.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 87.6 96.0 78.2 126.2 72.3 65.8 45.5 64.0 85.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 66.9 90.6 78.9 128.8 73.2 66.0 44.9 61.2 79.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 76.1 85.1 92.2 135.1 77.3 69.8 39.4 53.5 69.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 69.9 68.3 55.0 96.1 56.5 50.6 48.7 62.9 78.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 117.9 141.3 102.5 147.4 82.2 73.9 66.2 86.4 108.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 78.6 85.4 85.1 128.1 73.5 65.9 41.7 57.1 74.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 107.6 123.3 104.3 141.2 79.5 71.7 61.0 79.4 99.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 77.3 90.9 82.7 146.2 80.4 72.2 43.9 57.3 72.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 71.5 88.0 82.3 147.2 80.9 72.4 35.0 49.2 65.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 64.9 74.3 81.5 140.0 77.8 69.9 33.7 46.0 60.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 109.5 111.6 95.5 120.7 70.3 61.9 72.1 88.8 106.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 65.4 74.4 67.2 135.3 75.1 67.4 25.4 40.7 59.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 61.0 70.5 79.4 142.0 78.7 70.9 32.5 43.7 56.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 68.3 63.3 50.2 90.9 53.2 47.7 42.6 59.5 79.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 95.4 108.3 112.4 136.6 78.8 71.5 52.6 69.4 88.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 54.5 81.4 60.9 103.8 60.8 53.4 55.2 70.4 87.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 88.7 108.8 114.3 144.4 83.1 75.6 51.1 66.1 82.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 68.8 83.0 76.6 118.8 68.8 61.3 48.2 62.8 79.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 69.5 66.2 54.5 94.3 55.1 49.0 45.5 60.8 78.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 55.8 82.2 68.4 109.8 64.0 56.0 57.1 70.1 83.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 116.7 120.0 93.8 124.4 72.2 64.8 75.0 92.4 111.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 67.2 79.2 77.6 114.4 66.5 59.7 45.9 61.3 78.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 68.0 79.8 69.9 141.0 78.4 70.8 29.8 44.2 61.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 78.6 86.7 73.8 109.5 63.9 57.3 55.3 71.5 89.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 63.0 70.5 78.3 138.2 76.8 69.5 33.2 45.2 58.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 124.0 140.7 116.4 138.2 80.3 72.9 75.6 95.2 115.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 82.5 84.8 61.0 104.0 61.0 53.8 62.8 75.8 89.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------