***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 47 53 100 15.5 15.5 17.5 1.0 66.7 65.3 13.8 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.8 17.7 1.3 71.8 69.5 13.1 14.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.7 17.2 0.7 62.4 61.4 14.7 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 11.4 11.9 14.6 0.5 60.5 59.7 9.8 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 13.0 13.0 14.5 0.2 53.7 53.6 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 11.9 11.6 11.8 -0.1 48.5 48.5 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 15.7 15.9 17.9 1.4 73.6 71.4 13.4 14.4 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 6.7 6.6 12.1 0.1 52.4 52.2 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 14.0 14.4 15.3 0.6 61.6 60.8 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 13.8 13.9 13.3 0.3 56.6 56.2 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 13.7 13.7 13.9 0.2 54.0 53.7 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 11.8 11.7 12.9 0.1 52.8 52.6 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 13.4 12.9 12.5 -0.2 45.1 45.4 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 14.7 14.7 15.0 0.3 55.9 55.4 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 14.8 15.2 16.2 0.5 60.2 59.4 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 14.1 13.9 13.4 0.0 50.3 50.1 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 15.8 15.9 17.2 1.1 69.2 67.2 13.7 14.7 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 12.5 12.5 12.4 0.2 53.6 53.4 11.4 12.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 15.3 15.3 17.5 1.1 68.8 66.9 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 92 8 100 8.1 8.2 10.1 0.2 54.0 53.8 7.1 8.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 14.0 14.5 16.8 0.6 62.1 61.2 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 14.9 14.9 17.2 1.0 68.7 66.6 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 14.8 14.7 17.0 0.8 65.1 63.7 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.1 14.7 0.2 54.7 54.5 12.8 13.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 14.1 14.4 16.1 0.5 59.2 58.5 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 12.7 12.5 12.1 0.0 49.9 49.9 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 14.3 15.0 16.8 0.9 65.3 64.2 12.9 14.0 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 13.0 13.4 15.2 0.6 63.1 62.1 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 10.7 11.0 11.7 0.3 56.5 56.1 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 15.8 16.0 18.0 1.3 72.2 70.1 13.5 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------