***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 15.5 16.0 18.8 1.7 81.6 75.1 13.8 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 15.3 16.1 19.1 1.9 82.3 75.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 16.9 17.5 18.6 1.6 79.5 73.4 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 12.3 13.1 16.5 1.5 80.8 74.4 9.9 10.9 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.5 16.2 1.6 81.7 75.3 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 12.8 13.7 14.2 1.5 82.7 76.3 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 15.3 16.2 19.1 2.0 83.6 76.0 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 7.9 8.9 14.1 1.6 83.4 77.4 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 14.9 15.4 16.5 1.5 81.6 75.3 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 14.9 15.5 14.8 1.5 81.5 75.4 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.7 15.8 1.8 84.9 78.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 12.8 13.8 15.4 1.8 87.1 80.3 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 14.3 15.2 14.8 1.7 86.3 78.9 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.9 16.4 1.4 77.6 72.0 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 16.2 16.9 17.3 1.6 82.7 75.7 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 15.3 16.3 15.6 1.8 85.7 78.7 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 15.6 16.1 18.5 1.6 77.8 71.3 13.6 14.5 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 13.5 14.1 14.2 1.4 80.4 74.5 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 15.1 15.7 18.9 1.8 81.2 74.4 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 9.3 9.7 12.1 1.4 78.4 73.4 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 14.9 15.5 17.8 1.6 81.2 74.9 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 14.7 15.1 18.3 1.5 76.3 70.0 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 14.7 15.1 18.3 1.6 80.0 73.9 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 15.2 15.7 16.2 1.4 78.6 73.0 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 14.7 15.3 17.0 1.5 80.0 73.6 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 13.7 14.5 14.9 1.7 85.1 78.3 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 14.7 15.4 17.9 1.7 82.6 75.7 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 13.9 14.7 17.0 1.8 84.5 77.5 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 12.1 12.8 13.5 1.5 81.0 75.1 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 15.4 16.2 19.2 1.9 82.8 75.6 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------