***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 15.8 16.4 19.0 1.5 79.2 70.4 14.1 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.8 19.2 1.6 79.7 69.1 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 17.8 18.2 18.8 1.3 75.0 67.1 15.6 16.6 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 12.9 13.5 16.7 1.1 74.9 67.5 10.5 11.7 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 14.1 14.5 16.3 1.1 74.6 67.5 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 13.1 13.6 14.4 1.2 77.2 70.3 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.7 19.3 1.7 81.5 70.5 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 8.9 9.4 14.3 1.2 77.6 70.4 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 15.4 15.8 16.6 1.1 74.0 66.9 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.6 15.0 1.1 74.6 67.6 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 15.3 15.8 15.9 1.3 78.6 71.0 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 13.2 13.9 15.7 1.5 82.5 74.6 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 14.5 15.1 15.1 1.4 81.3 74.2 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.5 16.6 1.1 74.0 66.5 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.9 17.6 1.2 77.1 68.7 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 15.6 16.2 15.8 1.4 80.1 72.7 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.9 18.6 1.4 77.5 66.0 14.6 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 14.1 14.3 14.3 1.1 75.3 68.4 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 15.8 16.3 19.0 1.5 78.3 68.4 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 9.9 10.1 12.2 1.1 73.6 67.8 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 15.3 15.6 18.0 1.2 75.2 67.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.9 18.5 1.3 76.4 65.2 13.6 14.4 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.7 18.5 1.4 77.1 68.1 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 15.8 16.1 16.4 1.1 73.9 66.8 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.6 17.3 1.3 76.5 68.6 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 14.2 14.8 15.1 1.3 79.9 73.3 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 15.3 16.0 18.2 1.6 80.2 71.0 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.9 17.2 1.3 78.2 70.2 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 12.9 13.3 13.6 1.2 76.6 69.7 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.8 19.3 1.6 79.6 69.8 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------