***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.5 19.3 1.2 71.9 66.2 15.1 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 15.5 16.5 19.4 1.2 72.7 65.9 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.5 18.1 19.0 0.9 67.4 63.0 16.4 17.3 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 13.7 13.9 17.1 1.0 70.8 65.1 11.7 12.7 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 15.1 15.3 16.7 1.0 69.5 64.4 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 13.9 14.0 14.7 0.9 69.4 64.3 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 16.4 16.8 19.5 1.4 75.0 67.6 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 9.3 9.4 14.6 1.0 71.2 65.8 7.5 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.2 16.9 0.9 68.6 64.2 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 15.9 15.9 15.2 0.9 68.6 64.0 14.3 15.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 15.9 16.1 16.2 1.1 72.2 66.3 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.2 15.9 1.2 74.5 68.4 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 15.4 15.6 15.3 1.0 72.4 66.9 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 16.5 16.5 16.7 0.8 67.0 62.6 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 17.2 17.5 18.0 1.2 74.8 68.4 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 16.4 16.7 16.1 1.1 72.9 67.1 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 16.8 17.1 18.9 1.2 72.0 65.1 15.2 16.0 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 14.5 14.6 14.6 0.8 68.4 64.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.6 16.4 19.2 1.1 71.1 64.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.5 10.5 12.6 0.8 67.6 63.4 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 16.0 16.0 18.2 1.0 68.6 64.3 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 15.8 16.0 18.7 1.0 70.0 63.6 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 15.6 15.7 18.7 1.0 69.9 64.4 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 16.2 16.2 16.6 0.8 66.7 62.8 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 15.9 16.1 17.6 1.0 70.7 65.1 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 15.1 15.4 15.5 1.2 74.8 68.8 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 15.9 16.3 18.4 1.2 73.7 67.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.4 17.6 1.2 73.7 67.5 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.3 13.8 0.9 69.7 64.8 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.8 19.5 1.2 72.2 65.8 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------