***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 15.5 15.9 18.6 1.3 86.8 80.2 14.6 15.0 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 15.6 16.4 18.8 1.5 88.2 81.0 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 17.3 17.8 18.4 1.1 82.2 76.2 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 12.6 13.2 16.2 1.1 83.6 77.0 10.9 11.6 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 13.9 14.3 15.9 1.0 81.9 75.9 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 12.8 13.2 13.8 0.9 80.5 74.9 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 15.6 16.5 19.0 1.6 90.0 82.5 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 8.1 8.5 13.8 1.0 83.2 77.5 6.6 7.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 15.2 15.6 16.3 1.0 83.6 77.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 15.0 15.3 14.6 0.9 82.1 76.4 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 14.9 15.4 15.5 1.1 85.6 79.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 12.9 13.5 15.0 1.2 87.3 80.9 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 14.3 14.7 14.4 1.0 84.3 78.3 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 15.8 16.0 16.2 0.9 79.2 73.8 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 16.2 16.8 17.3 1.1 85.5 78.5 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 15.3 15.9 15.2 1.1 85.4 78.9 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 16.0 16.6 18.3 1.3 85.5 78.2 14.6 15.2 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 13.7 14.0 13.9 0.9 80.7 75.4 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 15.4 16.0 18.6 1.4 86.2 79.4 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 9.4 9.6 11.8 0.9 79.1 74.6 8.2 8.7 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 15.1 15.5 17.7 1.1 83.7 77.5 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 15.1 15.5 18.2 1.2 83.9 76.5 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 14.9 15.3 18.1 1.2 84.1 77.9 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 15.4 15.8 16.0 0.9 79.4 74.0 13.8 14.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 14.9 15.3 17.0 1.1 83.2 76.7 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 13.9 14.3 14.4 1.0 85.2 79.7 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 15.0 15.7 17.8 1.4 87.6 80.7 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 14.1 14.7 16.8 1.2 87.4 80.2 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 12.2 12.6 13.2 1.0 82.6 77.0 10.7 11.3 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 15.8 16.6 19.0 1.5 88.2 81.2 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------