***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 28.3 28.9 29.6 2.4 79.2 72.6 25.7 26.8 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 28.0 28.7 29.9 2.4 78.4 71.6 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 27.8 28.4 29.5 2.1 76.0 70.4 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 20.9 21.5 27.8 2.2 78.9 72.8 18.0 19.2 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 28.3 28.8 27.7 2.2 77.3 71.9 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 26.6 27.5 25.4 2.1 79.7 73.4 23.8 25.1 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 27.8 28.7 29.9 2.5 79.8 72.4 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 16.3 16.9 25.9 2.2 78.3 73.1 13.4 14.7 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 27.9 28.3 28.0 2.1 76.5 71.2 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 27.5 27.9 26.5 2.1 76.3 71.2 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 28.0 28.8 27.2 2.3 79.5 73.8 24.9 26.3 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 27.1 27.9 27.3 2.5 81.8 75.8 24.3 25.5 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 28.0 29.1 26.6 2.5 81.6 75.5 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 27.4 27.6 27.2 1.7 71.1 66.4 24.6 25.9 27.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 28.8 29.7 28.5 2.4 82.2 74.8 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 28.8 29.7 27.1 2.4 80.5 74.6 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 27.3 27.8 29.4 2.2 75.6 68.9 24.2 25.6 26.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 26.9 27.3 25.7 2.0 74.2 69.7 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 27.3 28.0 29.8 2.3 77.2 70.9 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 22.5 22.9 23.6 1.9 74.3 70.3 19.5 20.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 28.0 28.5 28.9 2.2 76.8 71.3 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 27.6 27.9 28.9 1.9 72.5 66.6 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 27.6 28.2 29.2 2.2 75.6 69.9 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 27.2 27.5 27.4 1.9 73.3 68.6 24.3 25.6 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 28.1 28.8 27.9 2.3 79.0 72.5 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 27.6 28.5 26.8 2.6 82.6 76.9 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 27.5 28.4 28.7 2.4 80.0 73.1 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 28.8 29.6 28.2 2.4 80.8 74.2 25.9 27.1 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 22.3 22.5 24.7 2.0 73.7 69.4 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 27.8 28.6 30.0 2.4 78.9 72.2 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------