***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 29.4 30.7 30.1 2.8 84.2 76.2 26.2 27.5 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 29.1 30.3 30.3 2.9 83.4 75.0 25.7 27.2 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 29.3 30.3 29.9 2.6 81.3 73.9 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 22.1 23.3 28.3 2.5 83.1 75.6 18.8 20.2 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 29.8 30.9 28.0 2.4 81.4 74.1 26.2 27.7 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 28.1 29.4 25.6 2.1 81.8 74.6 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 28.9 30.2 30.4 3.0 84.9 76.1 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 17.8 18.9 26.1 2.3 81.1 73.7 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 29.2 30.2 28.3 2.4 80.8 73.5 25.7 27.3 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 29.1 30.0 26.8 2.3 80.5 73.2 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 29.3 30.6 27.6 2.5 83.1 75.6 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 28.3 29.7 27.5 2.6 84.1 76.5 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 29.4 30.9 26.9 2.5 83.6 76.3 26.0 27.5 28.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 29.1 29.9 27.6 2.4 79.1 71.9 25.7 27.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 30.0 31.4 29.1 2.6 86.4 78.2 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 30.1 31.5 27.4 2.4 83.1 75.9 26.5 28.1 29.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 28.5 29.5 30.0 2.8 82.4 73.7 25.2 26.6 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 28.3 29.2 25.9 2.3 79.3 72.2 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 28.7 29.8 30.2 2.8 82.5 74.4 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 24.1 24.7 23.6 2.0 76.2 69.9 20.6 22.2 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 29.3 30.3 29.2 2.5 81.4 74.0 25.9 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 29.1 29.9 29.6 2.6 80.4 72.1 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 29.0 30.0 29.6 2.7 81.6 73.9 25.6 27.0 28.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 28.7 29.5 27.7 2.4 79.7 72.5 25.3 26.8 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 29.4 30.7 28.4 2.7 84.1 76.4 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 29.1 30.6 27.0 2.5 84.7 77.1 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 28.8 30.2 29.2 2.8 85.2 77.0 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 30.2 31.4 28.7 2.5 84.2 76.6 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 23.8 24.6 24.8 2.2 78.0 71.3 20.1 21.8 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 29.0 30.2 30.4 2.8 83.5 75.4 25.6 27.1 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------