***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 30.1 30.5 30.8 2.0 76.4 68.3 27.8 28.8 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 29.5 29.8 30.9 2.0 74.6 66.9 27.3 28.3 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 29.8 29.9 30.5 1.7 72.1 65.5 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 23.2 23.5 29.0 1.8 74.4 67.2 20.0 21.4 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 30.6 30.9 28.8 1.8 73.8 67.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 29.0 29.4 26.4 1.7 74.5 67.4 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 29.4 29.9 30.9 2.1 76.5 68.3 27.1 28.1 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 18.3 18.6 27.1 1.9 75.2 68.5 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 30.1 30.3 29.0 1.8 73.2 66.8 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 29.9 30.1 27.6 1.8 73.4 67.1 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 30.2 30.7 28.5 2.0 76.5 69.7 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 29.4 29.9 28.4 2.2 77.7 70.6 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 30.6 31.0 27.7 2.0 76.0 69.2 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 29.1 29.1 28.2 1.5 68.9 63.1 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 30.9 31.4 29.6 1.9 76.5 68.7 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 31.2 31.6 28.3 2.0 75.7 69.0 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 28.8 29.0 30.4 1.9 73.1 65.7 26.6 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 28.9 29.0 26.6 1.6 70.6 64.6 26.0 27.3 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 29.1 29.3 30.8 1.9 73.4 66.2 26.8 27.8 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 24.6 24.6 24.5 1.5 69.5 63.8 21.5 23.0 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.1 30.4 30.0 1.8 73.7 66.9 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.4 30.1 1.7 71.0 64.3 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 29.3 29.4 30.2 1.8 72.2 65.6 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 29.0 29.1 28.3 1.5 69.8 64.0 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.4 29.0 2.0 76.1 68.1 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 30.1 30.7 28.0 2.1 78.0 70.4 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 29.4 29.9 29.8 2.1 77.2 68.8 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 31.0 31.4 29.4 1.8 75.0 67.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 24.0 24.1 25.5 1.5 69.9 63.9 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 29.3 29.6 31.0 2.0 74.8 67.1 27.1 28.1 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------