***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 28.4 29.6 29.9 2.4 91.3 83.2 26.7 27.4 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 28.2 29.3 30.2 2.5 90.0 82.5 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 28.2 29.3 29.7 2.1 87.9 80.9 26.1 27.0 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 21.3 22.5 27.7 2.1 89.9 82.5 19.2 20.1 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 28.8 29.9 27.7 2.0 88.3 81.5 26.5 27.4 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 27.2 28.1 25.1 1.7 87.2 80.9 25.2 26.0 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 28.0 29.3 30.2 2.6 91.6 83.6 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 16.7 17.7 25.8 2.0 88.5 82.5 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 28.3 29.4 28.2 2.0 88.4 81.7 25.9 26.9 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 28.0 29.0 26.6 1.9 87.6 81.4 25.8 26.7 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 28.5 29.8 27.3 2.1 90.2 83.9 26.2 27.1 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 27.6 28.9 27.1 2.2 91.9 86.0 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 28.7 30.0 26.7 2.1 90.6 84.7 26.4 27.3 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 27.9 28.6 27.5 1.8 84.8 78.2 25.9 26.7 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 29.2 30.6 28.9 2.2 92.1 84.5 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 29.4 30.7 27.2 2.1 90.3 84.2 26.9 27.9 28.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 27.6 28.6 29.7 2.3 87.7 80.2 25.5 26.3 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 27.3 28.1 25.7 1.8 85.6 79.6 25.2 26.0 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 27.7 28.7 30.0 2.4 88.6 81.5 25.6 26.5 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 22.9 23.6 23.4 1.6 83.0 77.6 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 28.4 29.6 29.1 2.1 88.7 81.6 26.1 27.0 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 28.0 28.8 29.3 2.0 85.0 77.9 25.9 26.8 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 27.9 28.9 29.4 2.2 87.4 80.6 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 27.6 28.4 27.5 1.9 85.7 79.3 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 28.4 29.9 28.2 2.2 90.7 82.6 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 28.2 29.5 26.6 2.2 91.6 85.8 26.0 26.9 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 27.9 29.4 29.0 2.4 92.0 83.6 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 29.3 30.6 28.3 2.1 90.6 83.6 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 22.6 23.4 24.6 1.7 84.7 79.0 20.4 21.3 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 27.9 29.2 30.3 2.5 90.5 82.9 25.9 26.8 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------