***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 5.4 16.1 11.0 85.6 60.8 38.3 5.9 11.4 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 7.2 21.1 13.2 100.1 64.2 43.3 7.6 13.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.1 20.9 12.4 93.8 63.5 44.5 5.8 12.6 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.3 15.3 11.1 79.7 58.6 40.6 5.1 11.1 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.8 16.1 12.0 80.5 59.0 40.1 5.4 11.5 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.7 17.8 19.3 96.8 62.9 47.3 6.0 11.6 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 6.5 19.0 12.7 91.8 61.4 40.9 7.0 13.5 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.5 21.0 13.2 78.2 56.6 41.4 9.4 17.2 27.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 6.7 18.7 13.8 87.2 62.3 42.4 6.8 12.6 20.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 10.0 24.8 15.2 84.5 60.4 43.9 9.8 18.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.7 15.6 10.2 82.8 60.0 41.6 5.6 11.0 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.8 10.6 8.9 77.6 56.7 41.6 4.5 8.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.7 13.0 87.2 59.7 47.0 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 12.5 27.7 15.8 89.0 61.7 47.2 12.0 20.2 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.3 9.2 9.9 76.8 56.7 40.1 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.6 13.2 11.2 85.2 59.3 45.2 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.3 12.0 11.4 87.5 60.3 41.9 4.7 8.6 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.1 17.9 17.6 85.2 59.7 46.3 7.7 13.6 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 6.9 23.4 13.0 102.7 65.5 45.0 6.8 13.7 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.8 17.9 89.8 60.3 48.9 7.4 13.3 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 6.4 16.0 11.1 84.4 60.6 40.1 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.5 14.3 11.5 90.0 61.3 43.7 5.3 10.1 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 5.6 18.3 12.7 98.6 65.0 46.3 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 12.2 28.6 15.8 89.7 61.8 47.6 11.9 20.7 32.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 6.4 15.2 11.7 72.9 54.9 37.7 6.8 12.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.8 9.3 78.2 56.8 43.7 4.4 9.3 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 7.4 18.3 12.1 77.4 57.0 37.4 8.4 14.8 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.1 13.0 10.7 81.8 59.4 41.6 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.3 22.2 17.2 84.0 59.0 46.6 8.9 16.7 27.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 6.3 20.3 13.3 99.1 64.3 42.6 6.7 12.9 21.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------