***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 5.5 20.6 7.1 127.2 72.5 40.9 6.1 10.9 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 4.9 18.2 8.0 119.1 70.0 44.3 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.9 16.6 8.5 131.4 73.5 42.9 4.5 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.3 15.3 8.0 118.4 70.4 41.5 3.4 7.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.1 12.2 7.6 104.3 66.6 38.1 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.9 11.7 9.8 91.1 63.9 40.8 3.8 7.5 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 4.0 14.5 7.4 102.3 65.1 43.6 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 6.8 24.0 8.2 101.2 65.4 39.9 7.3 14.5 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.6 10.0 8.0 99.7 65.6 37.2 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 6.5 17.6 8.7 93.4 63.4 38.7 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.7 12.1 5.8 97.7 64.2 36.8 4.1 7.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 4.6 16.7 6.2 113.8 68.7 37.7 5.4 9.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.7 9.7 7.6 112.2 69.2 40.3 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.6 24.2 11.6 113.7 69.5 44.5 6.6 12.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.8 17.3 7.5 125.0 72.3 41.4 2.4 6.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.5 10.5 6.3 102.0 65.9 38.3 2.6 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.7 16.7 8.2 110.6 68.0 44.7 3.8 8.4 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.4 17.5 10.5 90.7 62.8 41.4 6.2 11.7 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.9 19.6 8.5 135.3 74.1 44.2 4.4 8.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 7.5 21.3 11.0 107.2 67.1 45.1 7.7 13.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.8 18.0 7.7 120.5 70.9 39.5 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.9 20.2 9.7 139.1 75.2 45.8 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 4.6 22.6 9.3 143.5 76.2 43.5 4.8 9.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.5 18.7 10.1 101.1 66.1 42.3 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.0 16.0 9.0 127.5 72.8 43.7 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.8 9.6 5.3 101.0 65.8 37.5 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 6.2 22.2 8.6 123.2 71.7 42.7 7.0 12.1 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.5 11.9 7.4 110.5 68.5 39.6 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.7 24.7 10.7 96.6 64.5 42.8 7.7 15.1 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 5.9 20.5 8.0 124.5 71.5 44.1 6.8 11.5 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------