***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 43.8 57.1 33.6 74.1 44.0 37.1 47.8 62.4 78.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 51.9 67.2 39.0 82.5 48.1 41.0 54.7 68.5 83.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 55.7 71.5 37.6 78.8 47.0 40.8 57.8 74.5 92.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 40.5 51.8 36.7 72.6 40.2 37.1 44.7 62.5 83.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 38.1 46.7 36.1 66.3 36.3 34.0 43.3 59.3 77.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 35.8 44.2 54.9 78.9 41.2 39.2 38.0 51.5 67.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 45.0 58.1 37.6 78.4 45.0 38.7 48.4 62.7 78.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 57.1 65.7 43.5 70.2 35.5 34.6 62.9 83.6 106.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 33.9 43.6 40.3 69.7 38.4 34.7 38.9 54.0 71.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 51.8 60.6 45.8 68.3 35.6 34.1 58.0 76.0 95.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 35.9 41.8 29.7 64.3 33.7 32.4 41.3 54.6 69.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 28.5 33.6 30.9 67.8 35.4 34.4 31.7 46.0 62.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 29.8 35.4 38.0 70.6 38.1 36.2 32.0 43.8 57.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 65.9 76.7 50.4 74.3 41.8 38.6 67.9 85.1 103.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 22.7 27.1 30.2 67.8 35.9 33.4 25.0 39.7 57.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 28.8 33.7 33.7 70.2 37.3 35.8 31.2 41.9 54.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 39.3 52.0 36.3 76.5 43.8 38.8 41.5 58.8 78.4 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 46.7 52.1 55.2 70.7 36.3 35.3 48.9 65.9 85.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 53.2 71.3 39.2 83.7 49.6 42.5 55.6 71.7 89.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 73.1 57.1 59.3 80.6 42.5 40.1 48.5 64.4 81.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 42.4 54.0 34.4 70.2 39.9 34.2 48.2 62.8 79.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 42.5 56.1 37.6 79.4 45.4 40.0 45.3 60.7 78.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 54.6 68.4 39.9 80.5 48.5 42.3 56.1 69.7 83.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 68.2 78.0 48.7 72.7 39.9 37.4 70.8 88.2 107.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 39.2 47.5 37.5 66.3 35.9 33.1 45.3 60.0 76.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 26.6 34.2 32.7 72.0 39.8 37.4 29.1 42.6 59.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 47.3 58.6 38.0 69.7 40.1 35.3 52.1 68.3 85.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 29.7 36.2 33.6 70.7 39.4 36.5 32.0 43.5 56.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 69.6 78.2 55.4 73.8 38.1 36.6 72.6 92.2 113.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 57.7 73.1 38.6 82.6 48.7 41.3 60.7 74.0 88.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------