***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 14.7 14.9 16.4 0.3 54.9 54.8 13.8 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 14.4 14.3 16.0 0.0 49.8 49.9 13.1 14.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 16.0 15.9 16.2 0.0 50.2 50.3 14.7 15.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 11.3 11.8 14.0 0.5 58.6 58.3 9.8 11.1 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 12.9 13.1 14.5 0.3 55.3 55.2 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 11.8 12.2 11.7 0.5 59.8 59.5 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 14.6 14.6 16.2 0.2 53.1 53.1 13.4 14.4 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 6.6 6.1 11.0 -0.3 44.7 44.9 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 94 6 100 13.9 14.0 14.5 0.2 53.1 53.0 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 93 7 100 13.7 13.5 12.2 -0.1 49.1 49.2 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 95 5 100 13.6 13.5 13.7 0.0 49.9 49.9 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 94 6 100 11.7 11.4 12.1 -0.2 45.8 45.9 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 93 7 100 13.2 13.3 12.8 0.2 54.0 53.9 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 93 7 100 14.5 14.4 13.9 0.0 50.9 50.9 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 14.8 15.2 15.9 0.6 61.2 60.9 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 95 5 100 14.0 14.1 13.4 0.2 53.2 53.1 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 14.9 14.7 15.7 -0.1 48.8 49.0 13.7 14.7 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 93 7 100 12.5 12.3 11.5 -0.1 48.4 48.5 11.4 12.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 14.4 14.2 16.0 -0.1 48.9 49.0 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 8.1 7.7 9.3 -0.3 44.1 44.4 7.1 8.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 96 4 100 13.9 14.0 15.6 0.1 52.5 52.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 14.0 13.8 15.9 -0.1 49.1 49.3 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 14.0 13.8 15.8 -0.1 48.8 49.0 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 14.0 13.8 13.9 0.0 50.0 50.1 12.8 13.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 96 4 100 14.0 14.2 15.4 0.3 54.7 54.6 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 94 6 100 12.6 12.8 11.8 0.3 55.7 55.5 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 14.1 14.4 16.0 0.3 55.6 55.5 12.9 14.0 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 12.9 13.1 14.5 0.4 57.1 56.9 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 10.7 10.3 10.6 -0.2 46.4 46.6 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 14.7 14.7 16.4 0.1 51.7 51.8 13.5 14.6 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------