***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 15.4 15.5 18.0 1.3 72.0 68.1 13.8 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 15.3 15.4 17.9 1.3 72.6 68.9 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 16.8 16.9 18.0 1.1 70.4 67.2 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 12.2 12.5 15.4 1.3 74.5 70.4 9.9 10.9 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 13.7 13.8 15.6 1.0 70.4 67.3 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 12.8 13.0 13.1 1.1 72.4 68.8 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 15.4 15.5 18.0 1.4 73.8 69.7 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 7.8 7.5 12.7 0.8 66.2 63.4 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 14.8 14.9 15.8 1.1 71.8 68.2 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 14.8 14.8 13.8 1.0 69.9 66.6 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 14.7 14.6 15.0 0.8 66.9 64.4 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.3 13.8 0.7 65.0 62.7 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.0 13.7 0.8 67.3 64.6 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.7 15.6 1.2 74.3 70.1 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.3 17.1 1.1 73.3 69.3 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.0 14.5 0.8 67.5 64.9 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 15.7 15.9 17.7 1.4 74.6 70.3 13.6 14.5 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 13.5 13.6 13.2 1.1 72.8 69.2 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.1 17.8 1.2 71.5 68.0 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 9.3 9.2 11.0 1.0 69.7 66.6 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.9 17.0 1.1 71.7 68.1 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 14.8 15.1 17.8 1.5 75.5 71.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.6 17.6 1.1 70.2 67.0 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 15.2 15.4 15.5 1.1 73.5 69.8 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 14.6 14.7 16.6 1.1 70.1 66.8 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 13.6 13.6 13.2 0.9 69.6 66.5 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.7 17.3 1.2 71.8 67.9 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 13.8 14.0 15.8 1.2 73.7 69.9 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 12.0 12.0 12.4 1.0 70.4 67.1 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 15.4 15.5 18.1 1.3 72.6 68.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------