***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.9 17.9 0.3 55.4 54.3 15.1 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.5 17.9 0.3 55.5 54.3 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.5 18.2 0.3 54.8 53.5 16.4 17.3 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.9 15.3 0.2 54.3 53.1 11.7 12.7 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.3 15.2 0.1 51.7 51.1 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.5 13.6 0.4 58.1 55.6 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.8 18.0 0.3 55.8 54.5 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.4 13.1 0.1 51.9 51.4 7.5 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.4 15.4 0.2 53.8 52.6 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.2 13.9 0.2 54.5 53.2 14.3 15.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.0 14.8 0.0 50.2 49.8 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.0 13.9 0.0 49.7 49.6 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.6 13.3 0.1 51.7 50.5 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.0 15.5 0.3 55.7 54.2 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.6 16.9 0.3 56.8 54.9 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.5 14.1 0.0 50.8 49.9 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.2 17.7 0.3 54.6 53.7 15.2 16.0 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.1 13.2 0.3 57.5 55.6 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.6 17.9 0.3 55.0 53.8 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.9 10.8 0.3 55.7 54.2 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.2 16.8 0.2 53.0 52.1 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.3 17.7 0.5 57.8 56.2 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.0 17.7 0.2 53.6 52.6 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.7 15.4 0.3 56.9 55.0 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.3 16.2 0.2 52.9 52.3 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.4 13.2 0.2 53.7 51.9 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.3 17.1 0.3 55.5 54.4 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.4 15.7 0.3 55.3 53.6 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.6 12.5 0.3 56.6 55.0 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.0 18.2 0.4 56.6 55.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------