***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 15.1 15.3 17.4 0.5 63.5 61.4 14.6 15.0 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 14.8 15.0 17.2 0.5 61.2 59.4 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 16.6 16.8 17.5 0.4 61.0 59.3 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 12.3 12.3 14.9 0.6 66.4 63.7 10.9 11.6 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 13.4 13.6 15.0 0.4 62.0 60.1 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 12.7 12.8 12.9 0.6 68.6 65.3 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 14.9 15.2 17.4 0.5 62.9 60.9 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.4 12.3 0.2 55.9 55.2 6.6 7.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.8 15.1 0.4 63.3 61.1 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.6 13.3 0.4 61.5 59.7 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.4 14.4 0.2 57.1 56.0 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.3 13.3 0.2 54.6 54.0 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.8 13.9 13.2 0.3 60.5 58.9 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 15.1 15.4 15.0 0.5 63.9 61.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 16.0 16.0 16.5 0.6 66.8 64.1 14.8 15.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.8 13.9 0.3 59.5 57.9 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 15.3 15.5 17.0 0.4 61.2 59.2 14.6 15.2 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 13.4 13.4 12.7 0.5 64.8 62.4 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 14.8 15.0 17.2 0.4 60.3 58.7 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.9 9.0 10.4 0.3 59.7 58.3 8.2 8.7 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 14.4 14.7 16.4 0.4 62.0 60.1 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 14.4 14.7 17.1 0.6 63.9 61.6 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 14.3 14.4 17.0 0.4 59.4 57.9 13.6 14.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 14.7 15.1 14.9 0.5 64.8 62.4 13.8 14.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 14.3 14.6 15.9 0.4 61.8 59.9 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.6 12.7 0.4 64.1 61.7 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 14.3 14.6 16.7 0.5 64.0 61.8 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.8 15.3 0.5 65.7 63.1 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.7 11.9 0.4 61.6 59.7 10.7 11.3 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 15.1 15.3 17.5 0.5 62.6 60.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------