***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 26.9 25.8 25.7 -0.6 42.6 43.2 24.8 26.5 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 26.6 25.0 25.6 -1.1 37.4 38.6 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 26.6 24.9 25.4 -1.1 36.9 38.1 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 19.8 19.0 22.6 -0.3 45.6 46.1 17.9 19.4 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 27.1 25.5 23.5 -0.9 38.6 39.8 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 25.4 24.9 21.5 -0.2 47.2 47.5 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 26.1 25.0 25.7 -0.7 41.1 42.1 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.0 13.3 20.9 -1.1 36.1 37.4 13.0 14.5 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 26.4 24.7 24.3 -1.0 37.5 38.8 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 26.3 24.6 22.0 -1.0 37.0 38.3 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 26.9 25.1 23.7 -1.2 35.7 37.1 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 25.8 24.1 22.4 -1.0 37.2 38.4 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 27.0 25.4 23.5 -0.9 38.3 39.2 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 26.4 24.2 23.5 -1.4 32.5 34.2 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 27.6 26.8 25.8 -0.4 44.4 45.0 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 27.6 26.1 23.4 -0.9 38.8 39.8 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 26.0 24.3 25.1 -1.2 36.2 37.5 24.0 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 25.8 23.8 20.9 -1.2 34.6 36.1 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 26.1 24.3 25.4 -1.3 35.6 37.0 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.3 19.5 18.9 -1.0 36.6 37.8 19.1 20.7 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 26.6 25.0 25.2 -0.9 38.3 39.5 24.5 26.1 27.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 26.4 24.9 25.1 -1.0 37.8 39.1 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 24.1 24.2 24.9 -1.6 32.1 33.7 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.0 23.9 23.4 -1.3 33.7 35.3 23.8 25.4 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 26.8 25.7 24.5 -0.6 41.9 42.7 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 26.5 25.7 22.3 -0.4 44.8 45.2 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 26.3 25.5 25.2 -0.5 44.2 44.8 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 27.6 26.8 23.8 -0.5 43.7 44.3 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.0 18.9 20.2 -1.2 35.0 36.4 18.7 20.4 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 26.3 25.1 25.8 -0.8 40.5 41.5 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------